Memphis Has #1 Recruiting Basketball Class: But How Good Will They Be?
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Today it was announced that 5-star forward Precious Achiuwa will be attending the University of Memphis in the fall to join the Tiger basketball program. For the first time in what seems like ages (and probably is), a program other than Kentucky or Duke has landed the top recruiting class in the nation. Since the John Calipari days, Memphis fans finally have reason to be excited about basketball again—but how good can we all expect the Tigers to be next year?
Precious Achiuwa, Photo: Alyssa Trofort/Under Armour
Achiuwa joins a recruiting class that also includes the #1 overall prospect James Wiseman, 5-star forward D.J. Jeffries (25th overall), 4-star guard Boogie Ellis (38th overall), 4-star guard Lester Quinones (81st overall), 4-star center Malcolm Dandridge (100th overall), and 4-star guard Damian Baugh (outside the ESPN Top 100). Achiuwa himself is a very athletic power forward and ranked #17 overall by ESPN. On top of all the incoming freshman, the Tigers are also getting the #2 ranked transfer player, Rayjon Tucker, out of Little Rock. All of that is quite the haul, which is why the program jumped over Duke for the top recruiting class.
While I wouldn’t blame Memphis fans one bit to have high hopes for this upcoming season, realistically I don’t see the team being nothing special. Now, when I say that, I don’t mean they won’t be any good. They will be a good team if they can stay healthy. But they won’t be a special team. Let me expand on that.
A special team to me is one that at least makes the Elite 8. Sometimes special teams get upset before then, which doesn’t automatically take away from their “specialness”, but I classify a team as “special” if you know all season long that a team is generally one of the best eight teams in the country. And to me, Memphis will not be. If I had to guess right now, I would give them a 1% chance at winning the national championship. I would give them an 8% chance at making the Final Four. And I would give them about a 15% chance at reaching the Elite 8. As a matter of fact, I don’t even think they will win their conference. The American Athletic Conference features some pretty good teams such as Houston, Cincinnati, Temple, UCF, and Wichita State. I can see Memphis finishing second in the conference behind one of those teams, but I don’t think they are ready to win it.
If it sounds like I’m hating, I’m not. I am just thinking realistically. I’ll start with my most powerful argument. Look at the talented class of freshmen that Duke had last year. I don’t think anyone can deny they were way better than this Memphis freshmen class. And as good as they were, even they didn’t get past the Elite 8. They came dangerously close to losing even earlier than that to UCF. And they have Coach K, who most people would undeniably put on their Mt. Rushmore of greatest college basketball coaches of all time. So if they couldn’t do it with a great coach and a better class of players, Memphis fans shouldn’t expect to realistically have a good chance of winning a national championship next season either.
Duke and Kentucky both have received their share of #1 recruiting classes. But think back to how many times it’s equaled a national championship. Kentucky did with Anthony Davis, and Duke did with the 2015 Jalil Okafor, Justice Winslow, Grayson Allen, and Tyus Jones class. I am certain that Memphis doesn’t have an Anthony Davis, because that kind of player rarely comes around. And I’m certain that Memphis won’t have the team that Duke did in 2015, which also had plenty of veteran leadership. If we’ve learned anything in the college basketball world in the 1-and-done era, it’s that a team loaded with them doesn’t equate to winning a championship, or really even being too close to it. Once March Madness rolls around, the best college basketball teams will rely on experience.
Experience is a HUGE factor for teams in March. But I’m not just referring to players having it. Oftentimes, the more experienced coaches are the ones who make it the furthest come tournament time. And “experienced” is not what Memphis coach Penny Hardaway is. Up until last year, Hardaway had no coaching experience outside of high school and AAU. He was hired to lead his alma-mater because of his name with the hope he could win recruiting battles like he is currently doing. But with just one season of college coaching experience under his belt, he’s still got a large learning curve ahead of him. I’m not saying he doesn’t have the potential to be a good college coach, but like every great college coach he will have to go through a heavy learning period.
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Memphis should have a good year, the best they’ve had in a while because there’s simply too much talent. But in my opinion, there’s just too much inexperience from the players and coach to realistically expect too much of their team. They’re like the new kids on the block. They won’t come in and knock around the blue bloods who generally always have experienced players and/or coaches. Either way, it’s refreshing to see a lot of big recruits choosing a school other than Duke or Kentucky. Welcome to the party Memphis, it’s always nice having a new kid to “properly” introduce to the block.
Garett