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AustYn

We are getting closer to cutting the NASCAR Playoff field to 8, as we travel to Talladega, Alabama for the YellaWood 500 at Talladega Superspeedway. Last week, Tyler Reddick won his 3rd race of the season at Texas and is showing that RCR is building something special. Tires were a MAJOR issue last week, and I do not have a strong enough knowledge of how the tire dynamics work, but it has been a problem in the past few weeks. I am not sure if it is a result of team’s pushing the issue or from Goodyear’s design. One major piece of news that happened this past week is that Alex Bowman will be sidelined for today’s race because of concussion symptoms and Noah Gragson will be filling in for him. The sport and news have never been more accessible due to the current state of technology that we have in the world and there are plenty of people very upset with how this new car is designed. If you have read my articles and my numerous opinions on things that the sport has been doing for years, you would know that I am not all that pleased with quite a few things that leadership in the sport is doing…and this just adds to it. NASCAR has been around way too long for it to be struggling with safety issues. Auto racing has always been a dangerous sport to be involved in and I think that is one thing people forget. Drivers are driving at a high rate of speed and have to know of the dangers that will present itself when pushing things to the limits. Have the drivers been spoiled with how safe the cars have been for a long time? Is it a design flaw in the car? What I mean by the drivers being spoiled, is that they may push things too far on the track and have a lack of respect of the wall they can hit or the other drivers they may hit? Everyone wants someone or something to blame…and while I do think NASCAR did not do their due diligence with the design of the car, I don’t think the drivers are completely out of it on this. There have been so many wrecks this season, and I am not sure it can solely be blamed on the car itself.

NASCAR also announced fines for William Byron and Ty Gibbs this past weekend for reckless driving. Byron got 25 points taken away and a $50k fine for wrecking Hamlin under caution and Ty Gibbs got a $75k fine and the team had meaningless owner’s points taken away. NASCAR punished Byron way too harshly for an incident…they “didn’t” see when Byron slammed into Hamlin under caution and shot him into the infield, because it SHOULD have been taken care of during the race. Gibbs nearly shoved Ty Dillon into crew members of another team on pit road because he got a little angered that Dillon got too close to him. How does a multi-billion dollar industry lose sight of refereeing their own event?!?! NASCAR isn’t a person and I don’t buy the well, it happens…yes humans make mistakes, but there isn’t one human making calls here. The sport is chaotic right now, and I really hope cooler heads prevail at Talladega. That leads me to my preview, which is that Talladega is the better of the superspeedways as it historically seems calmer. One reason is that it is a larger track than Daytona and can produce more lines in the “freight-train” so to speak. There will be 188 laps and teams will have 7 sets of tires, which I don’t think will be an issue today. The strategy will be to look at history here because finishing well at these tracks do require skill and patience. I will also be looking at starting positions, because many points can be gained from finishing well and staying out of mayhem. Also, fastest laps will be a key stat as many drivers who hang around back catch the tail end of the draft, resulting in faster speeds than the front, so those points will pile up fast.

Top Pick: Chase Elliott ($10,000) Starting P16

This just seems like a track that screams a Chase Elliott victory. Talladega is not really far from Dawsonville, Georgia, so you can bet that there will be plenty of #9 fans in attendance. Chase has won here once and has an average finish of 15.2, which is better than his starting spot. I look for Hendrick to be up front for most of the day and will not be shocked to see the #9 leading the field for most of the race.

Supporting Cast: Austin Cindric ($7,900) Starting 17th & Ty Dillon ($5,300) Starting 30th

I am going with this year’s Daytona 500 winner Austin Cindric in this one. He does seem to be a contender in all of these superspeedway races and part of that is the Penske power that is under the #2 car. He is also in the Playoffs, and I look for him to be a sneaky play this week. Ty Dillon is my next selection, and the main reason is the fact that his average finish here is 14.3, which is the best in the entire field. He has only 1 DNF and that was earlier this year in his entire career here. Look for Ty Dillon to hang around and pull out a solid finish today.

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Yacs

A Superspeedway is next on the slate and it’s a race that drivers dread and DFS players do as well. I hate picking Talladega and Daytona because in an instant, your whole lineup can be destroyed. Things can be looking great for 95 percent of the race and all it takes is one driver’s mistake to ruin it. Tyler Reddick was last week’s winner at Texas and the race was terrible. The tires were bad, there were a lot of cautions due to faulty equipment and every week, it seems to get worse and worse. These new cars aren't absorbing hits like they used to, and the crashes are much stiffer than they should be. NASCAR will figure things out, but hopefully it won’t be too late.

With safety concerns arising, heading to Talladega isn't exactly music to the ears of drivers. High speeds and guaranteed crashes. My strategy today is basically nothing. You absolutely cannot predict these races. I would say pick a bunch of guys starting in the back half of the field, but who knows if that is the right strategy? Talladega sucks. It sucks as a DFS player I should say. My advice is to pick randomly pick drivers. Not just that though, you want guys that have had some level of success at these tracks, because some drivers do have a knack for Superspeedways. With that being said, let’s get this one out of the way.

Team Penske: Ryan Blaney ($13,500) Starting 19th; Austin Cindric ($9,200) Starting 17th

Penske drivers normally do well at these tracks and they’re usually in the mix when it is all said and done. Ryan Blaney has had a lot of success at Talladega winning two races and averages 12 laps led per race here in his career. Laps led aren't going to mean a lot, but having winning experience helps.

For Austin Cindric, he doesn’t have a lot of Cup experience here, but he has won a Superspeedway race with this car. That’s really all I need to know. He finished 21st in his only race here, but averages a 2nd place finish at Daytona this year. Also, both of these drivers are fighting to stay alive in the playoffs and a win and a good finish will keep them in the Top 8.

Inexpensive Drivers That Will Be in the Mix: Justin Haley ($5,000) Starting 21st; Ty Dillon ($4,000) Starting 30th

Here’s where it gets tough. You know there will be drivers that will be in the mix towards the back of the pack, but picking the right drivers will be the key. Justin Haley does great at these tracks. In fact, I’d put him up against the majority of the field at these tracks. I figured he would be priced higher, but at on $5,000, he’s a great pick. Not that prices really matter at these tracks.

Ty Dillon is another guy that finds himself in the mix at the end of the bigger tracks. Dillon has the best career average here among current drivers with more than one race behind the wheel. He doesn’t have a Cup Series win, but with the way this season is going, I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see him pick up a win.

Final Pick: Noah Gragson ($3,500) Starting 7th

I don’t see any risk in going with Gragson today. He has an excellent track record at big tracks, he has Cup experience, and this is by far the fastest car that he has been in. He’s also the hottest Xfinity driver in the field right now. I realize the car is different, but still. Having winning experience of any kind can give you an edge and Gragson has nothing to lose and a lot to gain with a great finish today.

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