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AustYn

With only 3 races remaining in the NASCAR Cup Series season, the intensity is picking up at Homestead-Miami Speedway for the Dixie Vodka 400. Joey Logano won last week at Las Vegas and has locked himself in to the championship at Phoenix. That is a statement that you probably could have been missed if you tried to catch up on your weekly NASCAR news. The main talking point by FAR was the Bubba Wallace and Kyle Larson incident. I don’t want to go into detail about the on-track racing that happened, because you can decide for yourself. NASCAR ruled that Bubba Wallace should be suspended for 1 race…no fines…no penalties…just a vacation day for Bubba. The #45 team wasn’t in the driver Playoffs, but they were contending for the Owners Playoffs points championship…which I haven’t bothered to look at because the whole premise of that just seems absurd, and I imagine the #45 isn’t even close to winning that anyway. It is pretty amazing that you can get away with so many intentional actions that violate the rules of the sport and you only get vacation…who knows, maybe Bubba won’t get paid for the results of the race, but if he is under a contract, doesn’t he still get compensated? I thought it was a decision that shows the lack of leadership in the sport. Not only did you have a driver that intentionally wrecked a driver at the fastest part of the track…he shoved a NASCAR official, he shoved a driver who did not want to fight back and it was very obvious…not to mention he walked a very long way on a hot track and had time to think about what he was going to do, he still did it…refused the mandatory ambulance ride to infield care center and even though this isn’t a big deal, he looked like a complete unprofessional in his interview afterwards. There were so many bad decisions made here that it blows my mind. NASCAR has been battling issues revolving the safety of the new car and 2 Playoff drivers have been knocked out of the season due to concussion issues…and then you have the teammate of one of those drivers wreck someone intentionally?!?!?! Also, this is a track that claimed the life of Indy Car driver Dan Wheldon a few years back. I mean, when you start dissecting a lot of things…Bubba should have gotten the rest of the season off, fined a pretty hefty amount of money, the team should have had points taken away and Wallace should have been placed on probation for a minimum of a year. You can tell when someone has an attitude problem and it is so obvious that Bubba Wallace is a head case at the moment and I don’t think NASCAR is taking any of this seriously. This sport is quickly being turned into the WWE. Oh, and by the way, Wallace said in paraphrasing, he’s new to running at the front, but he doesn’t lift…you aren’t a “front-runner” if you can’t make the playoffs where 16 drivers…literally 44.4% of the field makes the playoffs and you can’t do that?!?! I guess this is the publicity the sport wants though…have sub-par performing drivers wreck above-par drivers intentionally and commit assault on track. My par claims have nothing to do with golf by the way.

Enough of that and let’s preview the race. I have always loved the Homestead-Miami race and was disappointed when they moved the Championship to Phoenix. There will be 267 laps completed this weekend and teams will have 10 sets of tires. Tire wear will be important here and drivers that can save their equipment will have a good chance to win today. William Byron is starting on the pole and for the first time since 2016, Denny Hamlin won’t be. The winner of this race (albeit the are still in the Final 8) will lock themselves into the championship. Long-green flag runs are expected, and I don’t see many cautions happening. There will be plenty of scenarios where drivers will dive-bomb others and that may cause some spins, otherwise I think it’ll a pretty calm race. I will be looking at past history for strategy, but practice speeds are going to be fairly important. It is difficult to pass here and if a driver can maintain decent speed on long-runs, look for them to gain spots late in runs…this is where you gain DFS points today. Aside from picking the drivers who dominate the race of course. The most picked driver in my opinion will be Tyler Reddick and I think you can fade him easily. He has only led 3 laps here, despite his reputation for being great here. Reddick is also the most expensive driver, even though he is not in the hunt for a championship.

Top Pick: William Byron ($9,200) Starting P1

The last winner at this track was William Byron and he is starting in the best spot possible. He has won in the truck series here as well and he was fast enough in practice, that I believe 100 laps led is not a far-fetched possibility. It would be insane to see Byron make the Final 4 after the season this #24 team has had, but I see it happening.

Supporting Cast: Noah Gragson ($8,100) Starting P24 & Corey LaJoie ($5,000) Starting P31

I want the driver who is ‘truly” dominant at this place…Noah won the Xfinity race easily yesterday, even getting out in front of 2nd place by 10 seconds on long runs. He will be in Hendrick equipment today and a top-10 is not out of the question today. Corey LaJoie is my next selection, and I don’t normally go with him unless we are at superspeedways, but LaJoie was only a couple tenths off of the long run speeds of the fastest cars in practice. All we need is a top-25 at this price too, so think about the #7 today.

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Yacs

The season is winding down and there are only 3 races left including today. Homestead-Miami is next on the agenda and it still feels weird that Homestead isn't the last race of the year. I know it’s been like this for a while now, but I still think it’s the perfect track to end the season. Anyways, last week was a big week for Joey Logano as he advanced to the Championship 4 for a chance to be Cup Series Champion in 2 weeks. Bubba Wallace made headlines for his outburst last week and has been suspended for this race. Some will say that he deserves to sit out the rest of the season and some say that he just deserved a fine because drivers have done similar and not been suspended. Well, I’m glad he was suspended. He deserved it. There was no need for what he did. Sure, Larson raced him hard coming out of the turn, but his day wasn’t ruined when he hit the wall. Wallace clearly has a temper and sitting out will be the best thing for him. These new cars aren't as safe for some reason as you can see with Kurt Busch practically ended his career and Alex Bowman has been out for a few weeks also. You can't just slam somebody into the wall because they raced you hard, because their careers could be ended.

Moving on to Homestead. NASCAR fans know this is a unique track and a track that some are really great at handling. Of all the speedways, you could argue that this one opens up for better racing and the better drivers in the field typically thrive here. Strategy for this week will be pretty simple. Pick drivers that can climb and potentially either win or come close. I think I have a good mix for you this week, so let’s dive in. Also, if you notice a pattern in my lineup, Chevrolets are fast.

Still Alive: Ross Chastain ($12,500) Starting 20th; Chase Elliott ($11,000) Starting 3rd

When the playoffs are still in play, you need to pick at least a couple drivers that are still alive and this week, I only picked 2. Chastain had the fast 10 lap practice speed this weekend and I think he will be strong today, because this is his kind of track. As for Chase, if he’s below 12,000 I say pick him regardless of track history or practice speed. The last couple of weeks have been a little underwhelming for Chase, but seriously, why is he only $11,000 this week? I think he will be picked quite a bit, but it will be worth it.

Next in Line: AJ Allmendinger ($7,000) Starting 10th; Austin Dillon ($5,300) Starting 32nd

There are a lot of solid mid-level and lower level options this week. I’m going to ride with Allmendinger today. Allmendinger has 5 straight Top 10 finishes in the Cup Series and I think he could make it 6 today. He was pretty fast in practice as well. 2nd best 10-lap average and 7th fastest hot lap. I think Allmendinger is pumped to be full-time next year in the Cup Series and I think he’ll finish well today. Austin Dillon on the other hand hasn’t had a great time practicing. 29th in practice, 28th among those with a 10-lap average. You’re probably wondering why I am picking him. He has a great track record at Homestead. 6th best average among drivers with more than two starts. I think they will figure things out as the race rolls along. I’m interested to see how much he will be owned today.

Final Pick: Tyler Reddick ($14,000) Starting 7th

If Tyler Reddick has a track that is for him, this is it. He is great here. He’s not racing for anything but pride at this point and I think he will be at the front for a good portion of the race. He doesn’t have a win here, but I think that will change today. He has run too well here to come away empty-handed. He dominated in Xfinity and has an average finish of 2 in two races in Cup. Expect him to be strong again.

NASCAR Dixie Vodka 400 DFS Preview