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AustYn

With only 2 races remaining in the 2022 NASCAR Cup Series season, this means that the Xfinity 500 at Martinsville Speedway is the final race before the final 4 drivers are announced as contenders for the NASCAR Championship. Kyle Larson won in dominating fashion last week at Homestead-Miami and is starting in the best spot possible…on the pole today. Joey Logano remains the only safe driver locked in, but I have no doubt that a championship contender will win today. In the NASCAR news world, I cannot think of many major announcements that happened, but last night in the Xfinity race, we saw a fan movement. What I mean by that is that I truly believe Ty Gibbs did an efficient job of making sure that you either “love him or hate him". Brandon Jones took the lead with one to go and Ty Gibbs drove through him going into turn 1…nope, not a bump-n-run…a flat-out wreck. If you watch highlights, you can hear the crowd booing at a noise level that is unprecedented, by the way…there weren’t many people there. Brandon Jones earned a lot of fans last night with how professional he handled the situation. It hasn’t officially been announced, but Ty is expected to get the #18 ride next season and that will be very interesting to see…hopefully JGR and TRD can put up with the amount of struggle that team will face, because they just let arguably the best driver ever to do it walk and Team Chevy will be that much stronger.

Enough of this Xfinity talk and on to Martinsville and the Cup Series. There will be 500 laps completed and teams will get 9 sets of tires. Tire fall-off did not seem to be a big deal in practice, so I don’t see that playing a major factor. The strategy for picking a cup race here at Martinsville is unlike any other track because track position is so key. Also, many drivers are skilled at this track and if they have tasted victory here in any of the 3 series’…I tend to lean towards them. I will look at practice speeds too because it tends to show who has a fast car. Speed isn’t normally found during a race here, cars that unload off of the trailer fast so to speak are frankly miles ahead of the competition. History does play a role for me when selecting cars and I know that the first race at Martinsville this season was at night, but I will still look at it a little bit. Many DFS players will go after those starting in poor positions…but don’t fall for that trap, many of those drivers will lose so much ground to those who lead 100+ laps and believe me…there will be a couple who do so today. You are better off picking dominators and picking fast cars on the low price tier today.

Top Pick: Ryan Blaney ($10,400) Starting P4

Photo Credit: sportsbookwire.usatoday.com

I am still waiting for Ryan Blaney to get his first win of the season and being that he has the best average finish here among all drivers at 10.2…Martinsville is as good as it gets for the 12 car. Blaney was blazing fast in the 5,10,15 & 20 lap runs pacing the field and only thousandths off of being the fastest on long runs. If he can get by the Hendrick duo of Larson and Elliott early…I like Blaney to lead 200 laps at least…get some fastest laps and win today.

Supporting Cast: Kyle Busch ($8,900) Starting P18 & Todd Gilliland ($4,800) Starting P19

This seems to be a track where Kyle Busch will state his last hoo-rah with JGR. Kyle wasn’t strikingly fast in practice, but he hasn’t finished below 19th since 2012…being that he is starting 18th it seems like Kyle is a shockingly good value. His starting spot doesn’t jump out at you, but the 18 car is undoubtedly one of the fastest out there. The Todd Gilliland selection isn’t for comedic relief…you may remember him winning his first truck race with Kyle Busch Motorsports and famously telling KB to go back to his motor home (nicely stated)? Well, the fact he has won here, and he has led many laps here in the truck series has led me to select the #38 Ford. He qualified well in 19th spot and as long as he focuses on getting laps in and not being a hero, his skill set at this track is proven and I think a top-20 is a given.

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Yacs

This is the deciding race to see which 4 drivers make it into the Championship Round and from the fan perspective, I don’t think there is a better race on the track to decide it. Drivers below the cutline will have to be extra aggressive if they want to stay alive and those above it will have to do the same to maintain their spot. The only driver that is safe is Joey Logano, because Kyle Larson won at Homestead last week. Like we saw last night, friends will not be made at Martinsville tonight. Everyone is your enemy, especially if you’re running for a shot at the championship

Martinsville is old school NASCAR heaven. Fast entry, slow in the corners and a lot of hard racing. This is a track where some drivers dominate, while others just hope they don’t get off of the lead lap. That’s what we want today. We want a good mix of dominant drivers that will potentially lead some laps and stay up front and we also want the aggressive ones that will scratch and claw their way to the front. Hopefully we have a good mix for you today on FanDuel

First Picks: Kyle Larson ($10,000) Starting 1st; Ross Chastain ($10,500) Starting 9th

I’m going to go with last week’s winner to at least put up a good fight today. Larson definitely one of the more aggressive drivers in the field and he doesn’t care about points at the moment, he just wants to rack up the W’s. I don’t need to see previous stats of him at Martinsville or any track for that matter, he’s going to be up front as long as his car his running fine. And Chastain is a bit of a wildcard at this track. All Chastain has to do is honestly get like a Top 15/20 and he’s moving on. He doesn’t have to be super aggressive, but I know he will be. He grabbed a 5th place finish here earlier this season and I think he can replicate that today.

Needs a Miracle: William Byron ($13,500) Starting 25th; Chase Briscoe ($8,800) Starting 3rd

Byron doesn’t need a miracle exactly, but he needs to run really well to stay alive. Starting 25th doesn’t yield himself to be put in a good spot, but I think he claw his way towards the front pretty quickly. Byron was the winner of the first race here in 2022 and while his car may not be the same, I think he’ll be towards the front by the end. Unless, he gets in trouble. He will probably be picked quite a bit, but I’m not worried about that. Chase Briscoe definitely goes in the category of “needs a miracle”. He doesn’t only need a miracle, he needs a win to move on. I’m not expecting a win, but I think he could run well and lead some laps at the very least. He shouldn’t stray too far away from his risky 3rd starting spot.

Final Pick: AJ Allmendinger ($7,200) Starting 21st

I feel like I’m picking Dinger every week, but he is reliable. He’s starting 21st and I think he’ll climb his way into a Top 15 and potentially a Top 10. He won’t be picked a lot I don’t believe and for the price I don’t think you can beat picking him.

NASCAR Xfinity 500 DFS Preview