Happy Thanksgiving! I hope everyone reading this has a great day to unwind, be with family, and enjoy the things that we sometimes take for granted. Not only is food and the Macy’s Thanksgiving Day parade a big American tradition, but football is perhaps the biggest tradition for many families. You can guarantee the Lions and Cowboys will always be on TV on Turkey Day and this year we have 4 other solid teams that will make for a really good Thanksgiving Day slate. I didn’t do one of these last year, but in did do one in 2020 and had a lot of fun with it, so let’s see what these 3 games are all about.

Game 1

Buffalo Bills (7-3) at Detroit Lions (4-6); Buffalo -9.5, O/U 54.5

Like always, Detroit will host the 12:30pm EST game and despite being a quite distant game as far as odds are concerned, I think this will be a great game. As the O/U suggests, this should be a high-octane matchup and I think we’ll be in for a real treat while we’re chowing down on our turkey. This will be the Lions 83rd game (37-43-2) on Thanksgiving and it will be the 11th time for the Bills (5-4-1).

The Bills are Back Home in Detroit

Last week, Buffalo was forced to use Ford Field last week after a huge snow storm hit Buffalo. The Bills defeated the Browns in Detroit, 31-23 playing at the neutral site. The Bills have the advantage as far as past matchups are concerned, but despite having the advantage, they have a losing record against the Lions in Detroit. Not only that, but in the 11 times that these teams have met, the Bills are 0-2 against the Lions on Thanksgiving. The two meetings took place in 1976 and 1994. Things are a little different this season. The Bills have a Top 3 offense and a Top 5 defense and they’re going up against the worst defense in football. It’s a match made in heaven, but only if Josh Allen can continue to play while injured.

All in on the Lions

This title is an inside joke, but I love betting on the Lions. It is a wild ride whether they win or not. My Bills preview up ahead was pretty Lions positive despite it potentially being a train wreck of a matchup. While everything I said was true earlier, they are still the Lions. They have a horrible defense, but what keeps them alive in games is their offense. Also, Jamaal Williams is on fire right now. They surprisingly may have a Top 5 NFL offense when this season is settled, which is crazy to imagine. While I think it is very possible that the Bills could absolutely demolish the Lions today, I’m not counting on it. I’m taking the 9.5 points in favor of the Lions all-day. It should be a fun game to watch and I honestly wouldn't count the Lions out in this contest.

Difference Maker: DET; DE, Aidan Hutchinson

Hutchinson has been practically the only bright spot in the Detroit defense this season. I think he will continue to demolish offenses for many years to come and I think he could be a big a factor today against the Bills. I was going to make my difference maker Jameson Williams for today, but he isn’t playing. We may see him debut next week against the Jaguars.

Game 2

New York Giants (7-3) at Dallas Cowboys (7-3); Dallas -10, O/U 45.5

One of these teams weren’t supposed to be this good at this point, so this Thanksgiving matchup will be a little more interesting. The NFC East is still within the grasp of both teams and it is definitely the division that most fans like to keep an eye on whether or not the teams are good or bad. The Cowboys have been one of the exclusive Thanksgiving Day football teams since their first appearance back in 1966. This will be the Cowboys 55th time playing on the holiday (31-22-1) and the Giants will play their 16th time on Thanksgiving (7-5-3). Despite having the same record this season, Dallas is a whopping 10-point favorite. We’ll see how it all unfolds this afternoon. It wouldn’t hurt if the Cowboys start losing a little bit, click the link to get refreshed on my Cowboys bet with Jarail.

Cowboys Will Be Cowboys

Dallas always dominates the media attention spotlight regardless if they’re trash or dominant. This year, they’re rightfully spotlighted. While their offense has been kind of dull at times, their defense is tremendous. They don’t allow teams to score and that is a major bonus if the offense isn't really getting things moving. There is a flaw in their defense though. They allow a good chunk of rushing yards. They’re 26th in rushing defense, so Saquon Barkley should rack up a good amount of yardage today. He had 126 all-purpose yards in the Cowboys 23-16 win back in September. A 10 point spread is a lot to bet on, but I think the Cowboys will do it today if they play like they did last week against the Vikings. Also, it is worth noting, the Cowboys will look to win on Thanksgiving for the first time since 2018.

Will the Giants Stop Overachieving?

I think the short answer is yes. I think the Giants have come back down to earth after their loss last week to the Lions at home. Barkley should rack up some yardage today, but they will have a difficult time with the two-headed monster of Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott. The Cowboys are 26th in rush defense, but the Giants are only slightly better at 25th. Both teams struggle to defend the run and it works perfectly for their gameplans, because they both rely heavily on the run. Surprisingly enough, the Giants and Cowboys have only met 1 time on Thanksgiving. Back in 1992, the Cowboys demolished the Giants 30-3 in large part due to Emmitt Smith’s 161 all-purpose yards and 2 TDs. It blows my mind they have only played 1 time on Thanksgiving considering the fact that they have been featured a combined 71 times on the holiday.

Difference Maker: DAL; QB, Dak Prescott

In their Week 3 matchup, they were missing their franchise QB, but somehow still won on the road. Now that they have him back in the lineup, it could be the difference between at 7-point victory and a blowout.

Game 3

New England Patriots (6-4) at Minnesota Vikings (8-2); Minnesota -2.5, O/U 42.5

The Pats and Vikes will meet for the first time on Thanksgiving Day tonight and both teams are looking to make a statement. The Pats have been on a good stretch as of late only allowing 6 points combined in their last two games. The Vikings will look to bounce back after their horrific 40-3 loss against the Cowboys last week at home. Minnesota is back at home and are favored. Tonight will mark the 9th time the Vikings have played on Thanksgiving (6-2) and it will be the Patriots 6th time (3-2). This will also be the first time the Vikings have not play either the Lions or Cowboys on Thanksgiving. The O/U suggests that it will be a defensive game, but we shall see.

Defense Wins Football Games

Defense is more important than offense, there I said it. Without a good defense, your offense has to perform extraordinary every week and that isn't a viable option moving forward. For the Patriots, they don’t have to worry about that. They have quietly had an elite defense this season. They only trail the Cowboys in scoring defense, but barely. In terms of yardage allowed, they’re the 4th best. The Vikings will have a tough time getting past them and it should be a fairly low-scoring game. The Patriots have relied mainly on their rush attack, but they could take advantage of the Vikings 31st-ranked pass defense tonight. Mac Jones hasn’t lit it up this year, but tonight could be a big game for him.

Will the Curse of Primetime Kirk Cousins Be Lifted?

Anyone who follows the NFL knows that Kirk Cousins-led teams struggle in the primetime slot. In afternoon and night games, Kirk Cousins record as a starting QB is 17-33. Not that he performs horribly, but his teams seemingly can never get the job done on national TV. It will be a tough night against a stiff Patriots defense and after getting embarrassed on national TV last week against Dallas, they can only hope that they have enough to fend the Pats off. Like I said earlier, defense wins games and all it could take is a couple defensive stops. They don’t have to be stellar to win, all they have to be is good enough and the Vikings have proved they can do that this season. Also, the Vikings haven’t beaten the Patriots since 2000, so they’re due for a win or are they?

Difference Maker: NE; LB, Matthew Judon

Judon currently leads the league in sacks with 13 at the moment. Tonight could be a big night for him. He already has the sack lead by 2.5, so he’ll be looking to extend that lead against the Vikings. I am picking the Patriots to win tonight on the road and I think Judon will be a big factor in tonight’s matchup.

Yacs

2022 NFL Thanksgiving Day Guide