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AustYn

This is it folks, this will be the last race of the 2022 NASCAR Cup Series season. It has been a blast writing articles week in and week out, especially with the so many unknowns of the season. We witnessed a full season of this new car, which will undoubtedly change a little for next season, especially with the safety concerns. We will also witness many driver changes for the 2023 season. Drivers will be running their last race with their respective teams, and some know where the future is stated. There are 4 drivers left in the Championship hunt and I think it is safe to say, 2 of them were not in many people’s pre-season predictions…especially 1. Christopher Bell won the elimination race at Martinsville last week and locked himself in, for the 2nd time in a playoff elimination race. Ross Chastain also helped NASCAR’s exposure by pulling off the most insane move I have ever seen in motorsports. There is no way you haven’t heard what happened, but by sending it all out in turns 3 & 4…he passed the necessary cars and did what he needed to do for Trackhouse. I can say this, there isn’t one driver out there who would have even considered that, drivers like Kyle Larson and Carl Edwards have tried such a move, but nobody has EVER pulled it off. I am not sure why Larson is so salty by it either…probably because he couldn’t complete the move? Everyone likes to talk about how he did it at Darlington…but I have seen him do a similar move at Chicagoland against Kyle Busch and he did it at the inaugural Charlotte ROVAL to get into the next round of the playoffs, by ping-ponging off the walls there. Chastain pulled off a historic move that will be talked about forever. Now that we have talked about the 2 magicians pulling off must-wins…we have 2 drivers that are past champions and have the edge on experience and performance to be honest.

Phoenix has been the host of the championship for a couple years now and the track itself has changed within the last 10 years quite a bit. There will be 312 laps completed and teams will have 9 sets of tires. I will be looking at history, practice speeds and track position for my strategy. Being that it is the last race of the year, and in my experience playing DFS in races like this…picking drivers will be totally different for me this time. You have to consider drivers motivations heading into next year and where they are mentally. This is the end of the grueling season and I like picking drivers who either are racing for a ride next year or are trying to prove something. I mentioned Bell and Chastain as “magicians” earlier and I mean that in the sense that I don’t think they really have a shot against Logano and Elliott. These 2 are so mentally focused right now, that beating them would require a lot more than luck. Bell and Chastain needed “hail mary’s” to get to where they are, and that doesn’t really work at a place like Phoenix. With all that being said, let’s go after it one more time and head into the offseason feeling good about our finale!

Top Pick: Joey Logano ($10,500) Starting P1

Team Penske looked so fast in practice and honestly, the entire Ford camp looked fast in both practice and qualifying. Logano’s car looked very stable and the shear speed will help him in a race where track position means everything. If the #22 pit crew performs well, Logano will be well on his way to his 2nd championship. Look for Logano to lead 100+ laps and stay up front all day.

Supporting Cast: Chris Buescher ($6,700) Starting P19 & Cole Custer ($6,000) Starting P9

Chris Buescher is a driver that I have selected in my secondary tiers a lot over the past few years and very rarely does he let me down. The #17 had decent pace in practice and lost very little time on long runs which is a sign of a stable car. Maybe that should be my key word for this event. All we need is a top-20 and this pick is worth it. My next selection will be the pick of the day and could potentially win us a tournament and that selection is Cole Custer. Starting in 9th… there is no way many people will consider him but hear me out…Custer isn’t locked into the #41 next season apparently and many believe that he isn’t good enough to be in the Cup Series. In his 5 career starts at Phoenix in Cup…he has always averaged a running position of 19th or better. His car also lost very little time on long runs and I liked his performance at Martinsville last weekend. I expect many drivers to get lapped early and I think Custer can get us a simple top-15 no doubt and I think he has something to prove.

FanDuel Preview

Yacs

It all comes down to this race at Phoenix. 4 drivers have a shot to win the Cup Series Championship and those 4 are; Chase Elliott, Joey Logano, Ross Chastain, and Christopher Bell. Two of those are unexpected if we were asked at the beginning of the season, but this year has been one crazy year. Speaking of crazy, Christopher Bell had yet another walk-off (drive-off?) win to advance to the final round. He did so to advance to the Round of 8 as well, but what if I told you that isn't what everyone was talking about after the race? Ross Chastain’s move to steal the final spot away from Denny Hamlin was one of the most insane moves in the history of stock car racing. The wall ride has been attempted by other drivers, but never successfully executed until last week.

This week we have Phoenix, and this is a track that you either enjoy or you don’t, and I really don’t enjoy it. I wish they would move the final race somewhere else, but I don’t make the schedule. Phoenix is a 1-mile track that runs like a short track, but is obviously a little longer than most of the short tracks. It’s low-banked, slower speeds, and multiple lanes. It’s not a terrible track, but I just don’t like it for the last race personally. The last two finales at Phoenix were both races that the Champion ended up winning, so there’s that. Expect the Final 4 to run extremely well today. Part of me likes that there is so much stress on one final race, but I don’t think it should come down to just one. I’ve said this ever since the playoff format has started, but it disregards the drivers that have been great all season long. In this case however, you could argue that the right 4 got in. These 4 drivers have been really good all season long. DFS is going to be a little tricky today because, you want to pick as many Championship drivers as possible, but at the same time, you want to get good enough drivers, so they have a shot to finish well in the race. Let’s see what we can cook up for the finale on FanDuel.

Hail Melon and Victory Bell: Ross Chastain ($13,000) Starting 25th; Christopher Bell ($13,500) Starting 17th

And here we go. The two guys that got in by the skin of their teeth are in my lineup this week. When things are ever in doubt, you know you can count on these two drivers to give everything that they have to win. Chastain has been decent here in good equipment and despite not running a good lap in qualifying, he put down the fastest lap in practice before, so that is a great sign considering the fact that we’ll likely see a lot of green flag laps. As for Bell, he somehow gets the job done when his back is against the wall. Compared to the rest of the Championship drivers, he’s probably been the slowest all weekend, but I think they will figure things out as the race rolls along. He also has winning experience here in the Xfinity series.

Value Picks: Ty Dillon ($4,000) Starting 32nd; Austin Cindric ($6,800) Starting 14th

I had to reach down a little deeper to find value this week because of my strategy, but I think I have two good drivers here. Nobody will be picking Ty Dillon and I think he could put together a solid finish. He has 2 Top 15’s in the Cup Series here, so he runs surprisingly well here. If he can get a Top 20, that would be all you need. And as for Cindric, he has only 1 race behind the wheel in the Cup Series, but Phoenix was one of his best tracks in the Xfinity Series. He has two wins and his average finish was around 5th. Hopefully we see Cindric end the season, just like he started it at the Daytona 500.

Final Pick and Your Champion: Joey Logano ($12,500) Starting 1st

The Penske Fords are fast, and Joey Logano has a winning history at this track. He also is one of the two drivers that have won a championship. Logano will do whatever it takes to win the championship and I expect him to lead the majority of the race. Also, in the last two Phoenix finale races, the pole sitters led the most laps, won the race and won the championship. Coincidence? I don’t think so. Logano will be fast today and I think he will be your 2022 NASCAR Cup Series Champion.

NASCAR Season Finale 500 DFS Preview