DraftKings Preview

AustYn

The 2022 NASCAR Cup Series is starting where 2021 left off…Hendrick Motorsports dominance. Aside from the Daytona 500, Auto Club and Las Vegas were won by the Hendrick camp. Phoenix Raceway will bring about a totally different style of racing as it is a 1-mile track that is relatively flat and high speed. This will be a preparation race for the season finale that crowns the Cup Series champion, so it isn’t odd to see all the top teams running well. The season is still fresh and new, so I expect a new winner to add to the NASCAR Playoffs.

Goodyear is bringing a totally new tire this weekend from previous years and the fact that the car is totally different, it is hard to get an angle on a DFS strategy. Track position is major here, as there have only been 5 winners that have started outside of the top-20 in 51 races. There will be 312 laps, which bring about the importance of laps led and fastest laps. Practice speeds will be a major indicator of tire wear and short vs long run speed. Kyle Larson is the favorite at 9/2 according to CBS Sports. Aric Almirola is historically solid here and is 25/1. My dark horse is Ross Chastain…he looked very strong last week, and I don’t think it is a fluke. With 50/1 odds, I like Chastain.

(Photo by Logan Riely/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Top Pick: Ryan Blaney ($9,700) Starting P1

Track position is going to be key and there is no better starting position than the pole! Ryan Blaney was 2ndfastest in overall speed and 10 lap averages in practice. With the stability of having the 1st pit stall and a fast car all weekend, I look for Blaney to lead over 100 laps and contend all day.

Supporting Cast: Austin Cindric ($7,700) Starting 8th & Bubba Wallace ($6,400) Starting 27th

I have already gone with one Team Penske driver, and I could not help but go with the #2 car today too. Cindric dominated this track in the Xfinity series with an average finish of 5.4 and 2 wins to boot. The price point is perfect, as I think he is high enough for people to skip over him, but low enough to where a cash game player can snag him. Cindric will contend today, so get him at this bargain…oh and did I mention he was the fastest car in practice? Bubba Wallace is a driver that has Joe Gibbs equipment and is starting towards the back. His practice speeds were good enough to warrant consideration, as he placed 11thin 10 lap averages and 13thoverall. Many players are going to automatically pick Stenhouse Jr and Allmendinger due to their starting position and I think Wallace is a nice option being $6,400. I look for him to get a top-15 and get is 12 EV points as well.

FanDuel Preview

Yacs

We’re moving right along to Week 4 of the Cup Series season and we got somewhat of a surprise winner last week at Las Vegas. Although it looked like Kyle Busch was going to cruise to a victory, A late caution decided to switch things up. Alex Bowman crossed the final line first and was your winner last week. This season has already been very interesting, and the races have all been exciting this season, in one way or another. Also, at Phoenix, we see a lot of variety. A lot of drivers have success here and it is certainly an interesting track. This will be the first meeting at Phoenix and we’ll go back here in November to conclude the NASCAR season.

From a FanDuel perspective, I don’t think the strategy shouldn’t be much different than DraftKings. You want to pick drivers that are consistently fast and you want drivers that can pass cars. Practice is our best indicator this week and hopefully that limited practice run will be enough to give us a good idea of who to pick. Also, track history is definitely important, but like I said earlier, there are a lot of drivers that have been successful here. The last 6 races at Phoenix have yielded 6 different winners. So, without further ado, let’s dive in.

The Favorite: Kyle Larson ($14,500); Starting 7th

He wasn’t my first pick off of the board, but I’ll go ahead and list him first anyways. If you pick Kyle Larson on DFS at any given track, you anticipate a great run, and by that, I mean you expect him to win the race. He is the favorite at most of these races for a reason. He simply is the best driver out there. A 7th starting spot doesn’t give you a lot of passing potential, but he’s proven to be great here. He secured the Cup Series championship here last season and he’s definitely the favorite to repeat this season. It’s great if he leads a lot of laps here, but all you really need him to do is get a Top 3 finish and he can definitely do that. It’s worth noting that he has to drop to the back of the field to start the race, but he shouldn’t have any issue getting to the front.

Second Tier: Ryan Blaney ($11,000) Starting 1st; Kevin Harvick ($10,000) Starting 16th

If you watched our videos last year, you would now what I’m talking about when I say tiers. $12,000 is my cutoff for Tier 1. There are usually 5 or 6 drivers in that range and Second Tier is obviously just below that line to about $9,000 or $9,500. Ryan Blaney is starting on the pole and I know it is a bold strategy to pick the pole sitter in any race, however, in some races you can take that risk. This is a situation where you can take that risk. Blaney has a solid track history here with a 5 Top 10s in his last 6. That doesn’t tell me the whole story though. What I like about Blaney this week is not only the fact was he the fastest in qualifying, he was the fastest in practice too. That tells me he has a great short-run car and long-run car. Both are obviously important, and I don’t think you need to be shy about picking the pole sitter this week.

As for Harvick, he is the King of Phoenix. He has the best track record here among active drivers and he is 4thin the last 6 races on average. In fact, with all drivers in history that have made more than 5 starts, he’s the best. Most of his success came a few years ago, but you can’t go wrong with Harvick at Phoenix, ever. He has 9 wins here. 9! 16% of his career Cup Series wins come from this track. He hasn’t finished outside of the Top 10 here since 2013. This is a no-brainer.

Hard-Charger: Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($7,300); Starting 36th

Stenhouse didn’t qualify, so he’ll start at the back of the pack, so you know what that means. Nowhere to go, but up. Hopefully we won’t get a situation like Anthony Alfredo in the Xfinity race yesterday, but as long as Stenhouse is out there, he should get a Top 20. At least, that’s what I’m hoping for. That’s practically his average finish here, so Top 20 is a good possibility. He will be picked a lot, but he’s difficult to dismiss. I was down to him and Ross Chastain for my final pick, but went with Stenhouse for passing point potential, say that three times fast. So, like The Intimidator says in the video above, hopefully Stenhouse will be a hard charger at Phoenix today.

Final Pick: AJ Allmendinger ($7,000); Starting 29th

This wasn’t my final pick when I was making my lineup, but for the sake of this article, he is my final pick. With this lineup, spent all of my allotted budget except $200. Allmendinger hasn’t been to Phoenix in a Cup Series car in 4 years, so there may be a little rust to shake off, but I think he’ll adjust. In his last 3 Xfinity Series races, including yesterday’s race, he averages around at 8th place finish. I don’t think Allmendinger will win today, but I think he could do well. Kaulig Racing has been pretty fast this season and this 10th fastest practice time was certainly encouraging.

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