It is that time of year again. The best time to be a college basketball fan. March Madness. Every year, we fill out our brackets hoping to get as close to perfection as possible, but it never happens, well, not for the overwhelming majority of us anyway. Some teams go into the tournament with high expectations and those dreams are shattered very early on. Fans of the tournament will agree that upsets are the most interesting aspect of the 68-team tourney. Everyone loves a David vs. Goliath type of matchup and the fact that the “David” teams can and do win make it that much more enjoyable, that is unless your team is a “Goliath”. What I plan to do here is highlight 5 teams that could take down the higher-ranked seed in the Round of 64. Personally, I don’t consider a 9 beating an 8 an upset, because they are so evenly matched. I’m interested to see the matchups unfold, but here are my 5 teams that could shake things up in the Round of 64.

- 13 South Dakota State (30-4)

Opponent: 4 Providence (25-5)

Throughout the entire history of the NCAA Tournament, a 13-seed has defeated a 4-seed 31 times, which equates to 21.5% of all matchups. In other words, almost 1 time per year, this particular seeding matchup yields an upset. I think South Dakota State will be the 1 (or more). Why do I think the Jackrabbits will defeat the Friars? Well, it comes down to offensive efficiency. South Dakota State’s FG percentage is 52.5%, which is just below the overall number 1, Gonzaga Bulldogs. If you’re making shots at a similar clip as the title favorites, then you have a great squad. Not only that, but they also make threes at an astonishing 44.9% rate, which is the best in college basketball by nearly 5%. Those are crazy stats and I realize the strength of schedule is obviously in Providence’s favor here, but that no longer matters. SD State scores 87 PPG, teams normally don’t win giving up 80 points, so if the Jackrabbits are hitting their shots, the Friars are in trouble. Doug Wilson is the top scorer for SD State, but my player to watch out for is Baylor Scheierman. He’s a tall, 6’6” guard that can do everything. In the Jackrabbits 21-game win streak, Scheierman has a slash line of 18.0 PPG/7.1 RPG/5.0 APG. He’s shooting field goals at a 53.8% rate and threes at a 49.5% clip.

- 12 UAB Blazers (27-7)

Opponent: 5 Houston (29-5)

The Jelly hype is very real, and it will be on full display against Houston. Jordan “Jelly” Walker has made quite a name for himself over the last week or so and for good reasons. The Conference-USA Player of the Year put the UAB Blazers on his back to earn a tournament bid and they’re not stopping if he has anything to do with it. A lot of people are talking about this potential upset and I think that it should be talked about, but I’m not entirely sold on the fact that they’ll move past Houston. Houston has an elite defense. With that being said though, UAB has a potent scoring attack. They are ranked 15th in 3PFG percentage and Jelly Walker is averaging 27.6 PPG in March. The 12 upsetting 5 matchups are the most interesting of the tournament, because they’re the perfect mix of shock and realistic chance. UAB does a great job at creating turnovers as well. They’re Top 20 in the nation. This will definitely be a great game to keep an eye on.

- 14 Colgate (23-11)

Opponent: 3 Wisconsin (24-7)

My apologies to B1G Cat in advance, I think the Badgers are going to be one of those big teams to go down in the Round of 64. 14 seeds have only defeated 3 seeds 22 times in history or 15.3% of the time. Despite the low odds, we could be in the cards for another 14/3 upset. Here’s an interesting fact. 14 seeds upset 3 seeds in consecutive years almost always. What does that mean? Only one time in tournament history has a 14 upset a 3 in a standalone year. When a 14 upsets a 3, it happens at least once a year in multiple years for example, in each tournament from 2013-16, there was at least one 14/3 upset. Since 2016 however, there has only been one. When was that you may ask? Last year. Abilene Christian took down Texas. Will it happen in 2022? History says yes. Will that team be Colgate? They definitely have a shot. If you haven’t guessed already, I really like picking efficient teams. Colgate is 2nd in 3FG percentage at 40.3%. They’re also 26th in FG percentage. Looking at the stats, I have no clue how Wisconsin have a 24-7 record. They’re a below average team statistically. 188th in scoring, 266th in FG%, 296th in 3PFG%, 101st in scoring defense. They’re not a great team. They’re one of those teams that could either make a run or get upset early and we have a lot of those. Watch out for this matchup, don’t say I didn’t warn you. Watch out for SG Jack Ferguson, who averages 12.6 PPG and shoots 3’s at a 42.3% rate. One big thing going against Colgate though is Wisconsin rarely turns the ball over. The Badgers give up the ball at the 2nd lowest rate in the country.

- 13 Vermont (28-5)

Opponent: 4 Arkansas (25-8)

Similar to the last matchup. Vermont is an efficient mid-major team and Arkansas is an overrated SEC team that is below average statistically. The Catamounts were far and away the best team in the America East Conference and they played 3 tournament teams this season, going 2-1 in those matchups. The player to watch out for is Ryan Davis. He averages 17.2 PPG and shoots 59% from the field and 42.3% from three. He’s a 6’8” forward and Arkansas normally has a smaller lineup on the court. Davis helped lead Vermont to a 20-game win streak heading into the tournament and he shot 53.2% from three in those games. Yes, you read that correctly.

- 15 Jacksonville State (21-10)

Opponent: 2 Auburn (27-5)

I personally don’t think we’ll see a 15 seed or 16 seed move on to the Round of 32, but crazier things have happened. Not much crazier, but it can happen. If I have to pick any of those 8 teams to move on, I’m going with Jacksonville State. The Gamecocks are another very efficient team on offense. They’re 5th from the three-point line and we all know that a hot hand at three can be big for underdog. That hot hand could be Demaree King. He’s a 6’0” guard that can heat it up off of the bench. He only started in 3 of the Gamecocks’ games this season but averaged 10.7 PPG at 46.2% from three. Auburn is one of those teams that could make a big run though. They’re honestly good enough to win the title and are led by Freshman phenom, Jabari Smith, who is currently projected as the top pick in the NBA Draft. Again, this isn’t a projection, but if I have to pick one 15-seed to cause a little bit of disturbance, I think Jacksonville State is that team. A 15 has only beaten a 2 nine times in history or 6.3%. Most recently was last year’s Oral Roberts team, who happened to make it to the Sweet Sixteen.

Yacs

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