NASCAR M&Ms Fan Appreciation 400 DFS Preview
DraftKings Preview
AustYn
The NASCAR Cup Series is heading out to the Long Pond in Pocono for the M&Ms Fan Appreciation 400. Christopher Bell came away with the victory at Loudon last week and solidified his position in the NASCAR Playoffs, which now consists of 14 locks. This makes for an uncomfortable situation for drivers like Ryan Blaney and Martin Truex Jr. who are 3rd and 4th respectively in the points standings. It ultimately creates a must-win situation for both drivers to get in. As you all know, 16 drivers advance to the playoffs and there are still a few races left before the cut-off at Daytona. Chase Elliott still commands the standings with a hefty 67-point cushion over Ross Chastain.
Pocono Raceway is a 2.5-mile triangular track that has high-speeds and relatively flat corners. New Hampshire last week, was a good warm-up for this event as it has the flat surface and downshifting played a role as well. NASCAR has really diversified the style of tracks in the Cup Series…there aren’t many tracks that compare to each other, which does extend the competition too. Denny Hamlin got the pole today and his 6 wins here make him a popular choice. There are a few drivers in the field today that are starting in spots that are too good to pass up, but hopefully I can show you others to go after if you want to get that tournament win.
Top Pick: Kyle Busch ($10,600) Starting P2
The race is sponsored by M&Ms and I am going with the M&Ms driver Kyle Busch. Most DFS players are going to go straight for Ross Chastain, because of the 21st starting spot…but I think there is something to be had for the most expensive option on DraftKings. Kyle Busch has been fairly dominant at Pocono…in 12 of his last 13 races here…he has led at least 1 lap and has won 4 in that time frame. Denny Hamlin is the historical choice here…but KB is the best choice in my mind.
Supporting Cast: Brad Keselowski ($7,300) Starting 26th & Justin Haley ($6,100) Starting 30th
I had so many thoughts running through my head when selecting the supporting cast…the most popular pick will be Erik Jones starting in 34th…I wanted to fade him so bad, but I think you have to go with him to avoid getting smoked in DFS this week. I did go with a driver that needs a great weekend and that is Brad Keselowski starting in 26th. His average finish here is 10.6 and last week, even with the temper tantrum with Austin Dillon, he got a top-10. Brad is a driver that could really disrupt the playoffs and I think he will contend today. Justin Haley is a driver that I rarely go after. The Kaulig Racing driver is so amazingly consistent and is trying to log as many laps as he can for that team, which makes him a stable option. His 29.5 average points per race is better than Denny Hamlin this season, and I look for a top-20 out of Haley.
FanDuel Preview
Yacs
We’re at the only triangular track on the circuit this week and Pocono is always an interesting race. A lot can happen at this track and with the way the season is going, we could see a new winner. We had another new winner last week at New Hampshire in Christopher Bell and things are a full-blown rush to get into the playoffs. There are only two more spots up for grabs and things will get pretty crazy over the next few weeks.
The strategy this week will be mostly based on passing cars and getting into good track position. Pocono is obviously a bigger track, so laps led do not matter as much, but staying up front will definitely be beneficial. This week’s salaries give a lot of opportunities to get a good mixture of climbers and spot holders. So that’s a good thing. This year’s Pocono race will revert back to the original races with 400 miles. Over the last couple of years, they had the doubleheader format and I thought it was cool, but we definitely knew it was going to be a trial run. This race should be a fun one, so let’s dive in to our FanDuel picks.
The Rivals: Denny Hamlin ($12,500) Starting 1st; Ross Chastain ($11,500) Starting 21st
The feud is seemingly growing stronger each week, but I think both of these drivers will finish well today. Hamlin is one of the best drivers at this track and has 6 career wins here, which happens to be the most among active drivers. As for Chastain, his Cup Series history here is nothing to be excited about, but I’m going to ride with him as long as I possibly can. He was fastest in practice and he has a Truck Series win here, so he can definitely grab a decent finish today. He will be moving to the back, but I don’t think that will harm him too much, he’s been fast all year.
Middle of the Pack: William Byron ($10, 000) Starting 18th; Kevin Harvick ($9,200) Starting 24th
In terms of salary and starting position, these two are middle of the pack, but I think you’re going to get two top-tier finishers today. Byron has run well here in his career and Chevys are fast today. In fact, Byron has the best career avg. finish here at 9.1. He has 5 Top 10’s, but he’ll be looking for that first win here today. Byron’s runs lately haven’t been great, but this could be the race to break him out of the mini-slump. Harvick is running well and needs a win. I could stop there, but he has a really good track record here. He is the best in the last 5 at the track and has finished Top 10 in each of those 5 races. Surprisingly, he only has one win here in his career, but I think we have at least 4 guys that can get a win today, Harvick has a great chance today.
Final Pick: Erik Jones ($6,000) Starting 34th
With Erik Jones, you know what you’re getting. You’re getting a boom-or-bust finishing spot. If he runs well, he’ll get you a good finish and that’s what I’m hoping for this week. Jones hasn’t really done well in Petty equipment at Pocono, but if you watch races, he is regularly competing within the Top 10 in the midst of races. I think this will be one of those weeks. My main concern is his ownership levels. He was fastest in practice, he’s an inexpensive option and he’s starting 34th, so there’s a lot going for him this week. Hopefully he will be overlooked, but I’m not really expecting it.
Yacs