I am so excited for NASCAR to be going to a “traditional” track this weekend at Michigan International Speedway. The FireKeepers Casino 400 will be a 200-lap event of pure racing strategy and skill. I don’t see the mayhem that we have been seeing at the road courses as of late and I think it will be rather calm. With that being said, Tyler Reddick won his 2nd race of the year at the Indy road course and help solidify his points standing in the NASCAR Playoffs. I am going to be up-front and honest about my past statement on HIS statement of going to 23XI…he has been even more competitive since the announcement and I think that RCR has to keep him in this ride next season. I figured that the team would be underwhelming and have poor performance after the statement, but it looks like RCR will be regretting their decision not to lock him up for years to come. Maybe he wanted to get out after seeing Austin Dillon’s reality show…it does seem like that RCR will tank and tank fast if they don’t get a good replacement in the #8 and I don’t know if that driver is out there at the moment. Chase Elliott…despite being wrecked towards the front last weekend…has extended his lead to 125 points over Ryan Blaney. The latter needs a win to lock himself into the playoffs. Ty Gibbs is also returning in the #45 car for the 3rd straight weekend. My prediction on the 45 car, Kurt Busch and all that encompass this situation…is that Gibbs will be running the #45 car part-time or 23XI will field a 3rd car that’ll rotate between Gibbs and John Hunter Nemechek. Gibbs may even become full-time and that wouldn’t shock me. I just don’t think Kurt will be back next season, especially with this concussion situation. Kyle Busch has really thrown a wrench in the 2023 silly season, and I don’t know where he is going, but I doubt it’ll be in the #18 car at this point.

Now for the race itself…as I mentioned, there will be 200 laps completed today at Michigan. 7 sets of tires will be utilized and tire fall-off is at a minimum according to the short practice session. Ford has won the last 7 races here and Toyota hasn’t won here since Matt Kenseth did in 2015. Toyota did look crazy fast in practice and in qualifying, as Bubba Wallace got the pole. Many quality drivers are starting towards the back and many of them will be chalky. I do believe you have to go with some of the chalk, but I do have some options that’ll help you get the edge in a tournament setting. History is sort of valuable in making a lineup, as the track is a low-grip track and hasn’t changed much…but the cars have so that makes past performance less of a factor. There also hasn’t been a track, besides Fontana…that comes close to Michigan. I will be looking at practice times though, because I do think raw speed will not go away here and those drivers who can position themselves on restarts and after stage breaks will be in great position to finish well.

Top Pick: Martin Truex Jr ($9,500) Starting P7

Even though Ford has been dominant here, I do believe a Toyota gets the win this weekend and I think it’ll be the #19. Truex has never won at Michigan, but always stays towards the front. With an average finish of 13.7 in his career, he has finished in the top-10 in his last 5 starts. Another contributing factor in my choice is that he (like Blaney) need a win to lock themselves into the NASCAR Playoffs. He is also one of the cheaper options among the top-tier drivers and his starting position is not as attractive as Chastain (22nd) and Blaney (24th).

Supporting Cast: Kevin Harvick ($8,400) Starting 16th & Aric Almirola ($6,800) Starting 18th

Kevin Harvick is another driver who needs a win and with an average finish of 11.2 here, he is a great value at sub $9k. Starting in 16th, he already looks primed to finish better than where he is starting. His practice speeds were also good enough to warrant consideration for a win. I am staying on the Stewart-Haas train with my next choice of Aric Almirola. His price range is around Brad Keselowski who is starting in 33rd and Austin Dillon starting in 26th…both of which will be 25% owned or more…I think the Smithfield Ford driver is a great secondary option to those drivers and he unlike the other 2…has top-10 speed according to practice. Do not be shocked to see the #10 car being in the mix today.

Yacs

A little change of pace for the Cup Series this week. They’re at Michigan this week after a chaotic race at Indy Gran Prix last week. Tyler Reddick picked up his second win of the season and it appears that his announcement of his departure isn't affecting morale of the crew and driver. Harrison Burton and Todd Gilliland picked up Top 5’s last week and I don’t think anyone saw that coming, but with these new cars, you never know what to expect. This week will obviously be different, and Fontana is really the only track that you can get a similar comparison to with Michigan and even then, they’re not really the same.

I think there will be a good amount of passing opportunities for cars today. You want some climbers in your lineup this week. You shouldn’t disregard fast practice cars, but I think there will be a lot of passing going on. It’s a 200-lap race, so it won’t be vital for you to pick the lap leader, but you obviously want your guys to stay up front. Be prepared for a lot of similar lineups this week, but I really don’t think you can avoid it.

First Picks: Chase Elliott ($14,000) Starting 13th; Martin Truex Jr. ($10,500) Starting 7th

These two were the first ones that I had in mind when picking my lineup. Elliott has the best career average here among current drivers. Despite not winning a race here, he has 10 Top 10’s in 11 races here and even though his practice times weren’t great, I’m not too worried. I think they will figure things out before the race ends. As for Truex, he has been really consistent here in his career. Like Chase, he’s searching for his first career win at Michigan, but not only that, Truex is looking to get into the playoffs and a win will secure that. Toyotas are probably going to be fast all race long, so Truex should enjoy a race towards the front of the pack for the majority of it.

Next Two: Ryan Blaney ($11,000) Starting 24th; Ty Gibbs ($7,500) Starting 11th

Blaney is still looking for that first win of 2022 and I’m going to keep picking him until he gets it. There’s a lot of value with his starting spot and I think a lot of DFS players will pick him, but I don’t think it’s avoidable. He was the previous winner of this race, so look for him to be strong today. And Ty Gibbs. I picked him last week and he didn’t do too bad, so I’m riding with him again this week. The reason I am picking him is that I don’t think a lot players will pick him. He was only like 7% owned on FanDuel last week and this week he has a better starting spot with lower passing potential. He won the Xfinity race yesterday and while that doesn’t automatically mean he will do great today, I am hoping he will be worth the gamble.

Last Pick: Brad Keselowski ($7,000) Starting 33rd

Brad K has had some success at this track despite not winning a race here. In the Penske car, it was rare to see him finish outside of the Top 10 on the lead lap. As long as Keselowski stays out of trouble, I think he’ll have a Top 15 day. I think his finish will make or break my lineup this week and I think that is a risk that I’m willing to take.

NASCAR FireKeepers Casino 400 DFS Preview