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AustYn

The NASCAR Cup Series season has plenty of storylines heading into Kansas Speedway for today’s Hollywood Casino 400. In the NASCAR Playoffs, many of the higher seeded drivers had issues at Darlington, one of them being former points leader Chase Elliott. Toyota and Chevy both had engine problems and the race winner was Erik Jones out of the Petty GMS camp…I don’t think anyone saw that coming. With that win, the #43 has won 200 races in the Cup Series. As it sits today, Briscoe, A Dillon, Cindric and Harvick are on the hot seat to be eliminated from the Playoffs. Kyle Busch has yet to announce where he is headed next season or in the subsequent years to come. Rumor has it that a deal has been made between he and Richard Childress Racing…or at least that what every NASCAR reporter working for a large company said yesterday. Even though an official announcement hasn’t been made, it is all speculation at this point. If this is true though, Kyle Busch would elevate that organization to new heights. The change from Toyota to Chevy would be monumental for his truck series team, as Toyota would be losing a dominant presence there. What would be even more shocking would be hearing that RCR is switching to Toyota, wow would that make heads spin! I do know that Dale Earnhardt Jr wants to get into Cup Series racing, and he has been trolling on Twitter lately in regards to the announcement…Since everyone else is speculating…it wouldn’t be shocking to me if an alliance was made with someone to get KB in a Jr Motorsports cup ride with help from Chevrolet. KBM and JR Motorsports are close to each other by the way in Mooresville, NC…but all shops are fairly close to be fair. Going back to the Playoffs, Joey Logano is the points leader with William Byron in 2nd.

Kansas Speedway is a pretty standard 1.5-mile oval that has multiple grooves to race on. Tire wear did not appear to be an issue during the practice sessions and the tire that NASCAR is bringing here is not the same one that they raced on in May. Teams will be allotted 9 sets of tires for the event…that number includes their qualifying set. Starting position does matter here, only 3 times has a driver started outside the top-20 and won in 33 races. The pole has won 7 times, making it much more common. There isn’t a dominant manufacturer here either as all 3 makes have one since 2020. I have always said, 1.5-mile ovals are my favorite in the DFS world, because there doesn’t tend to be many surprises…but this season has proved me wrong a lot. I will be looking at practice speeds and a little history, but with the new car and the new tire, it kind of voids all of that out.

Photo Credit: COLIN E. BRALEY *AP Kansas City Star*

Top Pick: Tyler Reddick ($9,800) Starting 1st

I don’t think this is a shocking pick to many of you reading, but Tyler Reddick was above and beyond the fastest car this weekend. It has been a while since we have had a driver post the fastest practice lap…be the fastest in 5,10,15,20,25 & 30 lap runs…and get the pole. Certain top tier drivers are starting far back, so Reddick may not be owned as much, but this seems like a no brainer. Kansas was the place of his first start, and I look for Tyler Reddick to lead well over 100 laps today and win.

Supporting Cast: Aric Almirola ($6,500) Starting 36th & Justin Haley ($5,500) Starting 27th

Now for the highest owned driver of the day…Aric Almirola. The #10 Stewart-Haas Ford will be starting last for the event, as they had issues with the car in practice and could not qualify as a result. That scenario does worry me a little, but I am confident they will get it fixed for race time. Otherwise, Aric Almirola is very good at Kansas, his average finish is 19.2 and he has 7 top-10’s in 21 starts. You have to remember, Almirola has not been in great equipment for a good portion of his career. My last choice is Justin Haley out of the Kaulig Racing stable. I am not picking Haley based off of his performance at this track (avg. finish of 34.7) but of his performance this season. The #31 tends to finish near the top-20 every week and his practice speeds showed that he is more than capable of producing a likewise result. Kaulig is a satellite team of RCR basically and they all looked fast this weekend, so I like Haley’s odds of getting a top-20 at Kansas.

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Yacs

Last week at Darlington was a pretty chaotic, but I think we’ll see a bit less chaos this week. We’re at Kansas this week and it’s a pretty straightforward track. The best qualifiers and best guys in practice will likely remain fast and those that aren't, won’t. It will be a 400-mile race this week instead of the 500-miler at Darlington last week. Erik Jones picked up his first win of the season for Petty GMS and it was good to see him grab a win. It was unfortunate that a couple of our guys had car trouble at the backend of the race, but that’s the risks that you run in a 500-mile race.

Our strategy this week will be a little different from the other week. It’s rare that drivers from the back move to the front to win at Kansas. The way you have to navigate around the track doesn’t allow a lot of passing, but it can happen. You have to pick the right climbers to make their way towards the top and surround them with guys that will maintain their good track position. With that being said, let’s dive in.

First Pick: Kevin Harvick ($9,500) Starting 14th

There were a series of unfortunate events for Harvick last week that led to a bad finish and he even called out NASCAR for giving them unsafe equipment. Hopefully this week will be a different story for Harvick. I feel like I am picking Harvick every week, but it is so difficult to pass up on his price. Harvick has experience at practically every track and while he is quite as dominant as he used to be, he is still a great driver. The starting spot and price point are perfect, and I feel like I will miss out if I don’t pick Harvick.

The Wild Card: Chris Buescher ($5,800) Starting 10th

This will be the riskiest pick that I will make today. Buescher’s starting spot doesn’t allow for him to move up too much and I think that will play right into our strategy. Buescher ran well in both qualifying and practice, so he should maintain that speed for a little while. Buescher doesn’t have an awesome history here, but he does have a Top 10. All I need to know is that he is capable of getting a Top 10 and I feel confident that it is possible today.

Final 3: Kyle Larson ($12,000) Starting 7th, Ross Chastain ($10,500) Starting 5th, Tyler Reddick ($11,000) Starting 1st

These guys all have similar driving styles and I think it will fit the style of racing at Kansas. Larson is a former winner here at Kansas and I think he will run well yet again today. He was 5th in practice and the fact that it is playoff time means that Larson is primed and ready to dominate. I think Larson is my pick to win today.

Ross Chastain has made enemies all year with his aggressiveness and he could be dumped at any given track, but I’m willing to task the risk that he won’t Chastain finished 5th here back in the Spring and had the 2ndfastest practice speed this time around. I think he will be towards the top for the whole race as long as he doesn’t upset any other drivers today. That is a tall task, but I think he will run well today.

It’s not always the best strategy to pick the pole sitter, but I think Reddick is too fast to ignore. This is his kind of track. While his track record doesn’t exactly prove it, he is fast at Kansas. I think he will lead a good amount of the race today and it’s possible that he won’t budge too much from that lead spot.

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