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AustYn

It all comes down to this. Beginning in February this year, we have seen much NASCAR Cup Series action and to be in the final 4 at Phoenix is the ultimate goal. Drivers William Byron starting P1, Kyle Larson starting P4, Christopher Bell starting P13 and Ryan Blaney starting P15 will try to out finish one another to take home the title. Larson is the only past Cup Series champion of the 4. The last race of the season is always tricky in terms of DFS. There will be surprise finishes today and some that do not make any sense. You’ll know what I mean when you look at the results at the end of the day, but the name of the game is playing the number. Typically, the driver that starts on the pole will lead the most laps, as they have the clean air and can dominate. That driver is William Byron and in theory, he will be one of the more popular drivers selected today. Depending on what tournament you play in on DraftKings, you will see Brad Keselowski selected highly starting in P31. Many solid drivers are towards the back of the field. Pricing has the championship 4 as the most expensive which isn’t shocking. Another thing to note about today is that Kevin Harvick will officially end his Cup Series racing career today, well full-time at least. Starting in P3, it would be nice to see him have a solid day, and Phoenix is his best track, so I don’t expect him to perform poorly. 312 laps will make up the finale and teams will have 9 sets of tires. Goodyear is bringing the same tire compound that was used at New Hampshire in the Crayon 301, so I will be analyzing stats from that race. Martin Truex Jr. dominated that event. The tire is a high wear compound, so drivers who can save their equipment will end the day well. Most of the time…this race is insanely boring. The Xfinity series had a great showing last night, so hopefully we can see some of that today. Best of luck to everyone this year and it’s been fun for 2023!

Champion: Kyle Larson Starting 4th ($11,500)

I don’t see Kyle Larson coming away from Phoenix without the trophy this year. I feel like William Byron is the favorite in DFS, but I really like where Larson is at. Only once in the last 10 events here has, he finished below 12th. Practice speeds weren’t far off, and racing is so different from practice and I believe Larson will bring home his 2nd title tonight.

Supporting Chase’s: Chase Elliott Starting 20th ($8,600) & Chase Briscoe Starting 26th ($7,500)

Chase Elliott is winless this season…that is a quote I would’ve never dreamed of saying in February. Turmoil and injury has plagued the 9 team, but I do think they end the year on a solid note. This seems like a race Chase could steal and I don’t see how we can pass up a driver of his caliber at this price. Chase Briscoe is solid at Phoenix, his average finish in his last 3 is 4th and he has led over 100 laps in total. This season has been rough for Briscoe as well and I see him, like Elliott, ending it solidly with a top-15 finish.

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Yacs

This is it. This is the final race of the 2023 season and all of fame and recognition will be all on the line in this one race. I personally have disliked the playoff format since the start of its inception. To have the whole season’s worth of work be put into one single race seems like a joke to me, not to mention the fact that it is Phoenix. You literally have to be good at Phoenix to win the championship. No other option. They’re not getting away from Phoenix next season either, which sucks. I can’t justify 35 of the other races meaning very little. All you have to do is really show up in about 25 percent of the season and you can win the championship. It sucks.

Anyway, let’s get to the race. It is Phoenix. It is big, short track. It is weird. Only certain drivers are safe picks at the track. My strategy today is to pick drivers that had solid practices speeds and include at least 2 Championship contending drivers. I would not select too many guys in the bottom half of the starting grid because they can get lapped pretty quickly here. Well, let’s not waste any more time and dive in. It is the final race of the season!

The Title Contenders: Kyle Larson ($14,000) Starting 4th; Christopher Bell ($12,500) Starting 13th

My two guys to anchor my lineup are Larson and Bell. These guys will be strong all day and both had solid runs in practice. Bell was the overall leader in practice and Larson wasn’t awesome, but I have no worries with him. He is starting 4th and it should be a good race from the 5. My personal pick for the championship is Christopher Bell. It just feels like he will win today. I guess it is just a hunch. Also, these two drivers won fairly early in the Round of 8, so it gave them more time to prepare for the final race. If not Bell, my pick will be Larson to win his 2nd championship.

Value Drivers: Chase Briscoe ($8,500) Starting 26th; Todd Gilliland ($4,000) Starting 14th

I think that there is a ton of value in this field today, but if you’re going to go with the strategy of picking 2 or 3 title contenders, then you may find yourself low on cash. These two guys can provide a steady presence in your lineup today. Briscoe has been solid at Phoenix for pretty much his whole career. I don’t like the fact that he is starting 26th, but I am not too worried. As long as he doesn’t get passed by the leader, he should put out a good value day for DFS lineups.

As for Gilliland. He is a total wild card. The reason I picked him wasn’t because of past results at Phoenix or his great practice time. No. It was because of his starting position. In races that he has qualified within the Top 20, he has put out some decent results. Sure, some race there is a bit of fall off, but I think he has a real shot to stay inside the Top 20. If he can, then I think he is a good pick.

Happy Trails, Mr. Harvick: Kevin Harvick ($11,000) Starting 3rd

Kevin Harvick has put together quite a career. 60 career wins. A Cups Series Championship. He had big shoes to fill after Dale Sr.’s crash that ended his life and I think he filled them as well as anyone could have. But that isn't why I picked him today. I picked him today because he is absolutely dominant at Phoenix. 9 Wins, 20 Top 5s, 30 Top 10s, 13.3% laps led in 41 career races. He hasn’t finished outside of the Top 10 since 2013 and not outside of the Top 20 since 2009. They race here twice a year, by the way. Not one single DNF. I would say Kevin Harvick is pretty good at this track. Also, something that really pops out, His average finish when he starts inside the Top 5 is just above 2ndplace. That is incredible, and I have to say that he is a must-pick in his final Cup Series start.

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