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AustYn

The west coast tour continues in the NASCAR Cup Series as they head out to the desert at Phoenix Raceway. In a big announcement this week, NASCAR announced that they will be changing the aero package for the short tracks, and it is effective at Phoenix this weekend. The cars will have less downforce leading to less grip. We will not be seeing more horsepower, but the racing will change. I am not sure whether more passing will happen or if it will even be better here, but only time will tell. Last week, we hit the nail on the head with our William Byron prediction. He dominated the race winning all stages and got by his teammate Kyle Larson late to notch his spot in the Playoffs. There will not be another 1.5-mile race for a while, but Hendrick showed promising speed. Only a few changes have happened from last week into this one…Zane Smith will be driving the #38 Front Row Motorsports car instead of Todd Gilliland, who will be in the Rick Ware Racing #15. That shouldn’t affect your DFS strategy though because neither one of these cars showed speed.

Phoenix Raceway is a 1.0-mile triangular track that is like Richmond and maybe New Hampshire. It is a flat track that has many grooves for racing. To be honest, many cautions do not occur at this track, and I don’t look for many to happen this weekend either. Track position is crucial and if you look at the practice times…you will understand why. It doesn’t take a severe mistake to set you back in the pack. Attrition and patience will be the key this week. My strategy will involve a mix of past performance in last season’s two events at the track, as well as practice speeds and tire fall off in those long run sessions. Many cars will have great short run speed, but being that long runs typically happen here, those who can keep stability in their cars will ultimately get great finishes today. There will be 312 laps completed today and teams will have 9 sets of tires to use.

Top Pick: Kyle Larson Starting 1st ($11,100)

I am staying with the Hendrick camp this week. I know I went on a rant about Chase Elliott and how it will hurt Hendrick’s performance…well not this week. Larson was the fastest car in totality this weekend. He had the fastest lap, fastest in runs of 5,10,15,20,25 and 30 laps and having the pole position will afford him a lot of flexibility for this race. If it is a fast, green flag race…Larson will easily lead 125+ laps and give us another victory. He is the highest priced driver, but don’t fade for the price, just do it.

Supporting Cast: Austin Cindric Starting 20th ($7,100) & Ricky Stenhouse Jr Starting 23rd ($5,800)

With your lower-tier drivers, I think you must get a little creative. You will have a lot of options that look enticing and there are always some diamonds hiding that you need to roll out. I decided to go with Austin Cindric at $7,100 because Team Penske does show speed this weekend, and while he did not have a stellar practice performance, Cindric has dominated here in the Xfinity Series. I get it…that’s not super relevant, but Briscoe shocked a lot of people winning last year’s race and he was always good here in the other series too. I like Cindric to get a top-15 today. My last choice is none other than the Daytona 500 champ Ricky Stenhouse Jr. He was near the top of the charts in 5th on 15 and 25 lap runs, only a couple tenths off from Larson and his price point is crazy at sub $6k. Stenhouse only needs a top-20 to return value here and truthfully, he has a top-10 car by the looks of practice.

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