NASCAR Ambetter Health 400 DFS Preview

Photo Credit: NASCAR.com

DraftKings Preview

AustYn

The NASCAR Cup Series is back on the east coast at Atlanta Motor Speedway for the Ambetter Health 400. If you have read about the latest news in the NASCAR world, you would see that the sport handed down one of its largest penalties in history to the Hendrick Motorsports organization as a whole and one Kaulig Racing team (#31 Justin Haley) due to modified equipment. That may not be the official term, but as a synopsis…the teams had louvres taken away from them prior to any racing activities last week at Phoenix. That did not stop William Byron from winning or Kyle Larson for that matter from dominating the race…and to top it off, all 4 Hendrick teams scored inside the top-10. Each team was fined 100 points and suspensions were handed down for the Crew Chiefs and such. This has shaken up the landscape of the points standings as Justin Haley is now at -40 points on the year. Also, NASCAR fined Denny Hamlin and took away 25 points from his organization for admitting on his podcast that he intentionally spun-out Ross Chastain at the end of the race last week. Being that I am not in the garage, and I have no clue what Hendrick Motorsports did to the louvres…I do not have a strong opinion on what happened. If they tried to manipulate the part for performance reasons…they knew the risks when they did it. Denny Hamlin’s incident on the other hand was completely avoidable on his part. If he didn’t say a word about it, NASCAR would have never known…in fact, it looked so bad if it was intentional, I would be embarrassed to admit it. Hamlin clearly has hostility towards Ross…probably because his career is dwindling…he still doesn’t have a championship and that he can’t beat him week in and week out. Joe Gibbs Racing does not have a bright future and if you think I am crazy about this…look at how far Roush Racing fell once Mark Martin and Matt Kenseth ended up leaving. Carl Edwards was the last straw there and after that, it has been mediocrity ever since. With Kyle Busch leaving, Martin Truex Jr soon to follow…Christopher Bell probably won’t be there next season…this isn’t a great situation for them and Denny Hamlin has the comfort of having his own team, but how can someone be that immature that has been in the sport for this long, think he could get away with saying that?? Denny hurt his team by wrecking Chastain, he hurt it with his words and now they have been penalized…great morale booster.

Now onto the race itself. Atlanta has been completely reconfigured as you all know, and 2 races happened at the track in the 2022 season. The track now races like a superspeedway because of the way the cars are built, and it has drastically affected the way we play DFS here. The only history you can examine is how the drivers performed here last season, because the “old track” was so different than the product we have now. Practice did not happen and qualifying plays a role because of the spots that can be gained in case of a wreck that takes out multiple drivers. There will be 260 laps completed and teams will have 9 sets of tires for the race, which will not be a factor. This race is intense because of the racing lanes, taking it 3 wide is not an option because the track is so narrow. Passing will also be a little difficult, but patience is the key here. My lineup may be a little chalky this week, but that is okay, I think you’ll have to be because cars will have a higher chance of wrecking than in a normal, 1.5-mile race. One more thing, the pit road entrance has been moved to the backstretch, which will affect green flag stops majorly if that occurs.

Top Pick: Ross Chastain Starting 18th ($10,000)

Photo Credit: AdventHealth.com

In 2022, Ross Chastain managed to finish 2nd…twice and I love his starting spot today. As we all know, he is an aggressive driver and I feel confident he will make his way to the front early on. Not many of the top-tier drivers are starting in great spots, so look for Chastain to be owned closer to 50% in tournaments.

Supporting Cast: AJ Allmendinger Starting 30th ($6,300) & Ty Gibbs Starting 35th ($5,900)

My options in the supporting cast are solely based off starting position and price point. If this was any other track, AJ Allmendinger would warrant a $7k price tag…but being this is a superspeedway type race, he was priced way too low to ignore. All we need is a top-20 from him. Ty Gibbs is not historically the best superspeedway racer, but at a sub-$6k level, he only needs to finish in the top-25 to make this a worthy selection. The car has the speed to win, we all know that, but having this quality of a car priced this low is absurd. Maybe we will get lucky, and few people will go this route.

FanDuel Preview

Yacs

We are back at the new Atlanta and we have a limited sample of who runs well at the newly constructed track, but still, it isn't really a lot to go on. They didn’t practice this week, which doesn’t help matters, but you have to work with what you have and know. Tires will not be an issue because the track is new, and the driving style is obviously like that of Daytona and Talladega now. So, drivers that tend to do well at those tracks will likely do well here today. With that being said, it will also likely be a caution-heavy race. A lot of your selections will come down to total chance. You better hope your drivers will be around at the end of the race.

Last week, William Byron picked up a win at Phoenix, but was penalized along with the rest of the Hendrick teams, aside from Josh Berry. Justin Haley was also among those penalized. They will lose their crew chiefs for 4 races and docked 100 points in the regular season. I really don’t think it will matter though, because each of the drivers, other than Haley, is practically a lock to pick up a win in the regular season. We’ll see how it affects them this week. For your FanDuel lineups this week, I wouldn't worry about spending as much as you can. Get solid guys that can get the job done. That is all you need this week. It is going to likely be a caution-filled race, so you can't easily predict who will be towards the top in the end. Just go with the information you have in the last 2 races and roll with it.

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Trackhouse Tandem: Ross Chastain ($12,000) Starting 18th; Daniel Suarez ($6,800) Starting 25th

Trackhouse wasn’t penalized among those Chevy drivers last week, so I think they will continue to run well. Neither guy did particularly well last week at Phoenix, but this is a different track. Well, Chastain would’ve had a solid finish, if it weren’t for Denny Hamlin, but hopefully this week will be different. Both Suarez and Chastain have done well in the two races here last season. Both had Top 10s in both races and Chastain had Top 5s in both races (2nd in both to be exact). Chastain also led 13% of all laps last season at Atlanta. We can't see how well their cars are performing due to no practice, but I think they will be fast today.

The Fords: Joey Logano ($13,000) Starting 1st; Kevin Harvick ($8,000) Starting 6th

I do know the Fords looked fast in the qualifying session, how they will run in the long stretches is a mystery. Logano has a good track record at bigger superspeedway style races and I think he will remain towards the top today. You can count on him pretty regularly at any track. As for Harvick, you can count on him at just about any track as well. He used to do really well at old Atlanta and he hasn’t been terrible at new Atlanta, so I will go with him today. The sample size really isn't big enough to say definitively how good or bad a driver is here yet, so I’ll roll with two of the most consistent drivers in the field.

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The Daytona 500 Winner: Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($6,200) Starting 27th

Stenhouse has already taken a W at a superspeed style track and I think he should run well today as long as he stays out of trouble. He has had trouble in the past 2 races at the new track, but it is encouraging that he led 22 laps in the first race here back in the spring of ’22. He hasn’t quite been hot after his big win at Daytona, but he hasn’t ran terribly either. He is finishing around what a bubble driver in the playoff would and that is basically what he is at the moment. I like Stenhouse today, but hopefully he isn't picked too often.