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AustYn

The first road course race of the year is finally here as the NASCAR Cup Series goes to Austin, Texas for the EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix at Circuit of the Americas, or COTA as it is known. Joey Logano won last week at Atlanta in the very different style of racing that the track produces now. Also, there wasn’t much news this past week, other than the fact that many proven international drivers will be racing in today’s event. Jordan Taylor will be filling in for Chase Elliott, Kimi Raikkonen will be in the Project 91 entry for Trackhouse Racing, Jenson Button will be in the 15 car for Rick Ware Racing and Jimmie Johnson…although a NASCAR legend, he will be fielding his number 84 for his own team. It is cool to see drivers from different motorsports series’ and I don’t recall a time when the field was this diverse in that way. Road course “ringers” as they are coined are always fun to watch, but I don’t expect any of the names I mentioned to compete for the win today. Jordan Taylor did impress with his qualifying run of 4th especially being that this is his first NASCAR race.

My strategy for the DraftKings segment of our preview will consist of a simple strategy. I will look at practice speeds and history at the track, albeit very small in sample size with only 2 races completed at COTA. I will also look at practice speeds compared to last season and analyze where the drivers finished in retrospect to their speed in pre-race segments. Looking at the price points…it is scary to see how in depth you can go with many varying strategies. My goal is to go where others aren’t willing to go. There are many great top-tier options…there are many lower-tier options as well. You can also pick average drivers for all 6 positions. A huge factor in this race will be the fact that there will not be any stage break cautions for road courses in 2023. Not having a forced caution will bring out varying strategies and will force you to go back in time in a DFS world where you pick based on attrition and endurance. Speed will no doubt be a deciding factor in where I go, but I have a few choices that will give me an edge over the competition. With only 68 laps, you do not have to worry about picking a dominator and teams have 6 sets of tires, which are plenty.

Top Pick: Tyler Reddick Starting P2 ($9,900)

Tyler was way too fast in practice to ignore. His top speed was 5 tenths faster than 2nd place and his 5-lap average was 4 tenths faster. Reddick has shown that he is a force to be reckoned with on road courses and this speed is unreal. The only car that stands in his way is William Byron and then after that, we could see the 45 out front all day long. The clean air will benefit him and with no stage breaks, I look for him to win today. There are many options to consider around him, but don’t overthink it here.

Supporting Cast: Michael McDowell Starting 20th ($7,100) & Bubba Wallace Starting 11th ($6,900)

The $7k and lower price tier is so exciting and stressful at the same time. Many of these drivers are in great starting spots and many of them show flashes at road courses, but not many are more consistent that Michael McDowell at COTA. He has a 7th and 13th place finish here in the 2 Cup events and was top-10 in total practice and 5 lap averages. Starting in 20th gives us positive EV for a great day. Here is my shocking selection, Bubba Wallace in the 23 car. His teammate showed massive speed and Bubba was just like McDowell…top-10 in practice speed and in average. I know he is starting 11th, but a top-5 is not even out of the question for him. This could be a breakthrough race for him and I think you can expect around 5% ownership in a large tournament.

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Yacs

We are road course racing for the first time in the NASCAR season and we are back at COTA once again. Last year’s race was an exciting one and Ross Chastain picked up his first career Cup Series win that day. Last week, Joey Logano picked up the win. It was his first career win at Atlanta and he surged at the end and passed Brad Keselowski to get the win. This week is a different animal though.

You are going to see a lot of road course ringers in the field today. There will also be a lot of familiar names outside of NASCAR like, Kimi Raikkonen, Jordan Taylor, Conor Daly, Jenson Button and a familiar returning NASCAR name ol’ 7-time himself, Jimmie Johnson. Road course normally don’t force you to spend the total salary amount, but it seemed easier to do so today. That just goes to show that the field is so much more diverse than in past years. Lots of guys are decent at these tracks now, because they are forced to be. The strategy today is to find guys that thrive at road races and have potential to maintain their spot. Picking guys that are starting in the back normally do not work out, unless you pick the right ones. Guys like Erik Jones and Michael McDowell have had success at this track starting in a back half spot. I think we will have a pretty highly owned lineup, but I’m not too worried about because I normally find success that way at road courses.

First off the board: Ryan Blaney ($9,500) Starting 38th; Ross Chastain ($13,000) Starting 12th

FanDuel made it almost impossible to not have Ryan Blaney in your lineup today. He is only starting ahead of one driver and he has really good runs at road course normally. He averages an 11.5 finish in the 2 races here, but he runs well at most of the road races throughout the year. A lot of people will likely own him, so where he finishes probably isn't terribly important, but I think you need him to solidify that lineup. He can get you a lot of bonus points and propel your lineup win big dollar amounts in tourneys.

I will probably pick Chastain a lot this year, but he always seems to find a way to get to the top of the leaderboard. A lot of people don’t care for the methods he uses to get to the top, but that isn't the point. He gets there and that is all that matters. Starting 12th, he could get some good bonus points and he clearly knows how to pick up a win here as he is the reigning race winner at COTA. Look for Chastain to be strong again here, but hopefully he doesn’t take anyone out of the race.

The Ringers: Austin Cindric ($11,000) Starting 3rd; Ty Gibbs ($5,500) Starting 17th

These guys will be the mix the whole day likely, but I’m a little concerned about how much they will be owned. Cindric won’t likely step out of the Top 10 day. He should be fast and you really don’t want to pick drivers that are starting too far back, so I think DFS players will lean on Cindric with his road success and the fact that he could lead laps and maintain his starting spot. We’ll see though. Hopefully, people will look at Reddick, Allmendinger and Byron more than Cindric.

Gibbs could be a trap pick, but I’m willing to risk it. He is coming off of a Top 10 finish at Atlanta and he has a better feel for the Cup car. He has had enough meaningful experience to come out of his shell and put together a great run today. I don’t think I would guarantee it, but I think he will have a good day. Hopefully he can secure another Top 10.

Final Pick: Daniel Suarez ($10,500) Starting 5th

Suarez has moderate success at road course and has won at Sonoma in the past. Well, last season to be exact. He hasn’t found success at COTA yet, but I’m not too worried about that, because all it takes is one mistake and you can get shuffled to the back. Suarez was kind of higher than I thought he would be, but I hope that will deter some DFS players, because I think there are others in that range that people could choose just as easily.

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