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AustYn

Next up on the west coast swing, we have Las Vegas Motor Speedway in the Pennzoil 400 Presented by Jiffy Lube. In popular and convincing fashion, Kyle Busch received the checkered flag last weekend at Auto Club Speedway for his 1st win under the RCR banner. People were cheering him as he celebrated which is not common at all. Now that his first one is out of the way, maybe we can focus on some other drivers in the series who want to theoretically lock themselves into the NASCAR Playoffs. One major story for this weekend is the fact that Chase Elliott will not be competing in today’s race. He injured himself in an off-the-track incident and will be sidelined indefinitely as far as I know. Hendrick Motorsports held a press briefing announcing the event and that Josh Berry will be filling in for him this weekend. I never saw where they announced who will be driving the car going forward but this is an excellent opportunity for Berry. From a personal opinion standpoint, I am torn on how I feel about this situation. On one side, you have the aspect that you should live your life and do what you want, but on another, you do have obligations to your sponsors and fans to just show up week in and week out…and when you cannot do that, you can’t deliver. If you can’t deliver…well that’s a failure from the sponsors standpoint, you didn’t meet your end of the obligation. Now, I do not race, and I am not in that situation, but when you make yourself absent from a situation, you let A LOT of people down and it affects every single person in the organization…especially when you want to be the leader of a team. Hendrick Motorsports will suffer from this and while it may not be evident at the present, just wait until the end of the season when they are playing catch up with the other teams. The team has stated they won’t prevent their drivers from doing things like this outside of their job, but I don’t necessarily agree with that. Drivers have an off-season which a lot of people in the real world do not have that perk…and why in the world are you doing something crazily extreme like this at the beginning of the season?!?! Now that my rant and opinion piece is out of the way, let’s get into the race.

There are so many chalky options this week for drivers starting towards the tail end of the field and my goal is to avoid picking them at all costs. I will pick one however, because his price is just too good, but try to avoid all the lower cost drivers starting towards the back. Las Vegas is a 1.5-mile oval that is egg-shaped. It carries a decent amount of speed and tire wear is still not an issue, although more than in the past. There will be 267 laps completed and teams will have 9 sets of tires to utilize. Practice speeds will be crucial this week and Las Vegas is typically uneventful with cautions. Track position will be key in my strategy today and history at the track. If you have read my articles in the past couple years, you know that I value starting spot compared to average finish…nearly all my choices finish better than where they are starting. I expect a decent number of leaders, so laps led isn’t as important to me. Last year in the two events at Vegas…nobody lead over 83 laps, so look at consistent drivers this week.

Top Pick: William Byron Starting P2 ($9,100)

You may be scratching your head at this point, being that I just said I do not want to pick a diver to lead a lot. While Byron does need to return us laps led, he is my only selection starting inside the top-10. Byron was the fastest in practice on 5 and 10 lap runs and had virtually zero tire falloff. This selection also negates my Hendrick comment about Chase’s absence being detrimental to the organization, but I think we won't see that in the immediate time. Look for Byron to get out front early and stay there for a solid top-5 finish today.

Supporting Cast: Chris Buescher Starting 18th ($6,900) & Aric Almirola Starting 21st ($6,400)

Chris Buescher is a rock-solid option week in and week out. The RFK driver is almost an automatic top-20 at every track the NASCAR Cup Series competes at. Buescher was 8th in 5 and 10 lap runs and like Byron…no fall-off. His average finish is 17.5 here so I can live with that. Aric Almirola looked fast in practice as well. He was 6th in 5 lap runs and 3rd in 10 lap runs. His 6th place finish in the 1st Vegas race last year is promising and his average finish here is 21.4. Look for Almirola to be hanging around 10th or so all day and if he does, this will be a great secondary option to the chalk Harrison Burton will have.

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Yacs

On to Week 3 at Las Vegas. This week has been pretty eventful, but hey, at least, they got to practice this week. The biggest news of the week was about Chase Elliott breaking his leg in a snowboarding accident this week. There is no timetable for his return, but I expect it to be quite a while. Josh Berry will step in for the former champ this week at Vegas. Berry is in the race, but it doesn’t appear that he will be available in FanDuel lineups this week. At least, it doesn’t appear that way. Kyle Busch picked up the win at Fontana last week, letting the world know that he isn't going away any time soon. He has similar success at this track too, so keep an eye on that.

This week we are at a first 1.5-mile track of the season and things are a little different in terms of strategy. There is a slight uptick in laps from 200 to 267 this week, so laps led can play a slightly bigger role in successful lineups this week. In the past, these tracks didn’t allow a ton of passing, but with these new cars, it is easier to pass. I wouldn't go to heavy on the guys that need some ground to make up though. In the last 12 races, the race winner started inside the Top 10, 9 times. These are some things to keep an eye on. Without further delay, let’s see what FanDuel has to offer.

First Pick: Kyle Busch ($14,000) Starting 5th

Don’t be surprised if KB goes back-to-back here. He looked great last week, and I have to assume that things will be going well this week as well. He has a great starting spot and he could be in line for a dominant performance yet again. He wasn’t particularly fast in practice, but I’m not too worried about that, since he qualified 5th. Hopefully his car stays quick in the long runs. Busch has the 3rd best overall average finish here at 10.8, in 23 races. He has only won the race once, but usually rides around the Top 10. He should be fast again today.

The Climbers: Tyler Reddick ($9,000) Starting 34th; Harrison Burton ($3,000) Starting 35th

I said earlier that you shouldn’t put too much faith in climbers this week, but you probably will need one or two to maximize your point potential. Tyler Reddick runs really well here at Vegas and I expect him to put together a solid run today. They will be forced to start in the rear and they didn’t get one second of qualifying or practice under their belts this week, so it will be tough for them to climb, but with his track record here, I wouldn't be too worried. He is averaging a 6th place finish in his last 3 races at Vegas. He also has an Xfinity and Truck Series win at the track.

As for Burton, he is a bit of a wildcard. This may perhaps be the first time that I have ever picked Harrison Burton in a race. Burton practiced 20th, which is about the range that you want for a $3,000 driver, but it does concern me that he is starting in the rear alongside Tyler Reddick. Unlike Reddick, he did attempt to practice, but ran his car into the wall. He only got 10 laps down but couldn’t get his new car back out to qualify. Hopefully he will put together a solid run. I don’t think a Top 20 is out of the question. He had a 16th place finish last year in March and in his 6 Xfinity and Truck Series starts, he has finished Top 10 in all of those.

The Glue: Ross Chastain ($13,000) Starting 8th; Martin Truex Jr. ($10,500) Starting 15th

These two guys will be the glue that hold the lineup together. Ross Chastain has been fantastic here since they went to New-Gen. He finished 3rd and 2nd last year. He was 10th fastest in practice and he is starting 8th, so look for him to be a contender today. That is all he really has to do. Stay in the Top 10 and if he dominates, even better.

Truex has a great history here as well. In 22 races, he averages a 10th place finish, which is 2nd highest among active drivers. 10 of his last 11 races here have been Top 10s. He has won here twice and had an 8thand 7th place finish in the next-gen last season. He didn’t practice particularly well, but he knows how to drive this track, so again, I am not worried. Hopefully his starting spot and practice time will deter so people and we can make that lineup even more unique.

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