NASCAR Toyota Owners 400 DFS Preview

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AustYn

The NASCAR Cup Series season will race at its first official short track of the 2023 season at Richmond Raceway for the Toyota Owners 400 today. Richmond is one of my favorite tracks to watch and even though it is usually uneventful, it is a race of endurance and patience. One major news story from this weekend is the fact that Hendrick motorsports was officially relieved off their points fines from the illegal louvers that were confiscated for their cars at Phoenix. It is a really bad look for NASCAR, but I don’t think it is for the sport. NASCAR has made some pretty irresponsible penalty calls towards a lot of infractions, especially since the creation of this new car. With parts not fitting correctly to not communicating a proper “correction” method to the misshapen parts. The sanctioning body may be upset, but the appeals process essentially involves a third-party who can examine facts and evidence to make a sound decision. They elected to say not guilty to Hendrick and now, NASCAR looks foolish to be honest. I feel like they want to maintain this clean-cut look of a proper sporting association, but they still seem to target certain teams, especially those with money. There is an underlying story in all of this, but unfortunately, I am not an insider, so it is only a theory at the moment. If you want to govern a sport, you still must be fair, no matter if the parties involved make or made you frustrated.

Richmond will host 400 laps of racing and teams will have 9 sets of tires for the race, which will be vital…more so than at any track they have ran at this season. Practice and qualifying were rained out, so we do not have any data to go off of for a strategy in that. I will be looking at past performance and of course starting position. Richmond is a difficult place to pass, and you do have to have a fast car to do so at a high rate. One thing that will be helpful is looking for drivers that have started in bad positions and finished well. Another factor in creating a DFS lineup at a short track with a lot of laps is to pick a dominator. This is one of the most difficult things to do. Many players elect to go with the pole sitter, because ultimately, they will have the clean air advantage. Alex Bowman is starting on the pole, but I do not like him today. Drivers are in pretty great spots today and the price points are skewed because of the lack of practice and qualifying.

Top Pick: Kyle Busch Starting 2nd ($9,700)

Photo Credit: FoxNews.com

Mentioning that I do not like Alex Bowman today, I do like P2 Kyle Busch. He has a career average finish of 7.0 at Richmond. The new team will change things a little, but I think it’ll be for the better. He has finished in the top-10 in his last 10 starts here and having the advantage of starting towards the front will allow KB to dominate this race.

Supporting Cast: Brad Keselowski Starting 24th ($8,300) & Noah Gragson Starting 23rd ($5,800)

Selecting my supporting cast was difficult, but one driver that has surprised me this season is Brad Keselowski. He has consistently been towards the front of the field and has racked up a couple top-10s. He is priced high this week, but he is definitely worth it at the 24th starting place. Like Kyle Busch in terms of consistency, he hasn’t finished outside the top-15 since 2015 at Richmond and I look for him to be hovering around the top-10 today. Noah Gragson was a gut pick…I do not have a lot of statistical evidence to select him, but Gragson has always been a solid short-track driver. Truthfully, the car is around 20th place finishing quality, and I think that he can keep it on the lead lap and get us that kind of finish. Drivers starting in the back, especially the lower priced ones will have an uphill battle all day, and I think Gragson is determined to get a top-15 today.

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Yacs

We have had a string of bad luck picking lineups, so we are going to switch up our strategies a little bit. Last week, COTA was a fun race to watch and Tyler Reddick picked up his first win in the 23XI Racing number 45 car. It appears that he is a road course ringer officially. Moving from a road race to a short track is quite the change of pace, but here we are. I’m going to be honest I absolutely hate picking Richmond. I have never been good at it, but hopefully things change today.

My strategy for today is to pick drivers that have been performing well not only this season, but have performed well at similar tracks in the past. The tracks I am looking at are Phoenix mostly and Gateway. Gateway isn't too similar, but it is a similar driving style. Also, Nashville is a similar driving style too Richmond, but is almost double the size. I looked at that also. Drivers that have a knack for driving on flat short tracks tend to do well here. I want a healthy mix of drivers that will be picked and a couple that will fly under the radar. Hopefully we win some money today.

First Pick: William Byron ($14,000) Starting 3rd

We are going with the most expensive driver right out of the gate. Clearly, they are doing something right in the 24 camp and I’m late to the party, but I’m going to jump on board today. Byron is decent here, not great, but he is hot right now and you have to ride that momentum. His best Cup Series finish here is 3rd and I know he is capable of getting a top 5. Hopefully he leads some laps today too. That would be beneficial. He also won the last race at Phoenix, so that is encouraging too.

The Climbers: Aric Almirola ($7,500) Starting 32nd; Ryan Preece ($5,200) Starting 33rd

This track isn't the easiest to pass at, but it is still a short track and you need to pick at least one driver that will climb a little way. Aric Almirola is the pick if you want that. At the last Richmond race, he started 32nd and finished 8th. If he can replicate that exactly, that means money for your lineup. He has been solid prior to this though, so I think he is undervalued at $7,500

Preece is a bit of a wildcard. He doesn’t really have a good history here, but he did finish 12th at Phoenix this year. That is the little bit of hope that I am holding on to for him. I wanted to pick one driver that won’t be chosen too often, and I hope I hit a home run with Preece, or at least hit a double. If he finishes in the Top 15, I think you are getting your money’s worth and then some. Preece has ran well at Phoenix in good equipment in the lower series races and has been dominant in the trucks at Nashville, so that gives me a little more hope that he could put together a good finish today.

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Ol’ Reliables: Joey Logano ($10,500) Starting 18th; Denny Hamlin ($12,500) Starting 11th

Logano is a 2-time winner at Richmond and holds the 5th best active average finish here. If you ever get in a pinch and need a reliable driver that can get the job done, Joey Logano is that guy. Logano is also excellent at Phoenix and won the only race at Gateway last year. The 18th starting spot is a good place for him to climb and get those extra points.

Hamlin is in the same category of reliability. He has had a string of bad luck in a lot of races over the last couple years, but I’m not too worried. Hamlin is a 4-time winner at the track and has the 3rd best career average at Richmond. He has 12 Top 10s in his last 14 races and 10 Top 5’s in the last 12. I’d say he’s pretty good here. I think he will be picked pretty heavily, but I think DFS players will side with a little cheaper option in Truex or Bell. Both have tremendous track records here, especially in the last 5 races. I think you can put Denny down for another great finish here today. I hope so at least.