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AustYn

Dover Motor Speedway is the site of the next NASCAR Cup Series event and will be different than what we saw at Talladega last week. Kyle Busch won in overtime and after many cars were destroyed. Busch is not known for winning at superspeedway’s, so the win must’ve felt great. Being that qualifying was rained out for the event today, Busch also will start on the pole due to the qualifying metrics NASCAR uses in these scenarios. One major storyline is the fact that ANOTHER Hendrick Motorsports driver has effectively eliminated themselves from competition and that is Alex Bowman. He had a violent crash in a dirt racing event and has fractured vertebra, which will cost him a few weeks of seat time. Bowman also missed time due to concussion symptoms last season. With Hendrick Motorsports already having Chase Elliott miss time…luckily, they have a driver who is waiting in the wings…Josh Berry. He did pilot the 9 car solidly, so I expect him to do the same in the 48. Hendrick is still determined to not make a change to their off-the-track policy…but it has to make you wonder, should they? Again, it’s not my money and not my business to operate, but this must kill morale around the shop. Sure, you can be extra motivated and have the adrenaline to outperform, but there cannot be stability in a team like that. My take on this is, unless your other racing events make you perform better on Sunday’s…then you shouldn’t be taking the extra risks…I saw some drivers saying it improved their driving ability…but they aren’t getting better results, so is it really a benefit?

The Cup drivers will be completing 400 laps on the 1.0-mile concrete oval and will have 8 sets of tires. One thing to note about racing at Dover…cautions do not happen very often and long; green flag runs will be prevalent in the event. Rain is in the forecast today so they may not be able race today. As I stated earlier, Kyle Busch will be on the pole and the good thing about rained-out qualifying formats…as a DFS player, you can find immense value in many tiers. History is always an important thing to analyze here as drivers who maintain their equipment will perform well at Dover. Last season’s results will be a great thing to look at as well, because it is the only sample of the new car. Tandem Draft, a website I have mentioned before, contains great info on the driver’s average running positions and fastest laps…the drivers who laid down fast laps last season are going to contribute to my lineup today just as a preview.

Top Pick: Christopher Bell ($10,300) Starting 2nd

Joe Gibbs Racing will be dominant today. Last year, all but Bell had at least 30 fastest laps, and he had 13. He has never started well at Dover but was great here in the Xfinity series. Starting on the front row will give Bell an excellent opportunity to lead close to 100 laps and that will be crucial in this 400-lap marathon.

Supporting Cast: Josh Berry ($7,500) Starting 23rd & Ty Gibbs ($7,100) Starting 24th

Picking a Hendrick Motorsports driver here does contradict a little of what I said earlier, but Bowman always performed well here, and Berry is very good at Dover in the Xfinity Series with an average finish of 1.7. Berry has proven that he can perform with a 2nd place finish earlier this year, so all we need is a top-20. Ty Gibbs is another Joe Gibbs driver who I expect to be fast. Essentially, this is Kyle Busch’s old team and he led 103 laps last year…again, his starting spot is too attractive to pass up, again all we need is a top-20 out of Gibbs.

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Yacs

We’ll see if we get this race in today, but today they will try to run at Dover. I’ve not had a good stretch of luck here lately, because frankly, the races have been so unpredictable. In a way, that is a good thing, but not for the wallet. Dover can be a tricky race. It runs like a short track in a lot of ways, but it is an intermediate track. We’ll have 400 laps at the Monster Mile and lap leaders will be a factor. With this new car, it won’t be as much of a factor though. You want a good mix of guys that are starting towards the front and have the potential to stay up there. You also want drivers that can climb a little bit. Granted, these cars just don’t pass. I think the racing has suffered at shorter tracks. They need to figure something out because there have been times this year that I’ve turned the channel because the racing was so bad. When you ruin a track like Martinsville, you’re not moving forward. My strategy today is basically not really a strategy. I haven’t had luck with anything this year, so I’m going with my gut this week. Hopefully it works.

First Pick: Josh Berry ($8,700) Starting 23rd

Josh Berry is getting a lot of good seat time at the Cup Series level and it appears that he may drive himself into a ride next season. He normally wouldn't be my first driver off of the board, but this week he is. Why? Well, he is dominant at Dover. In 3 Xfinity starts, his average finish is 1.7. Two runner-up finishes and one win. He has shown flashes in this Cup ride and I think he will be strong today. I didn’t quite expect him to be price as high today, but it is still a reasonable price for him.

Totally Kyle: Kyle Larson ($14,000) Starting 18th; Kyle Busch ($9,500) Starting 1st

We’re back to Totally Kyle at Dover this weekend and hopefully both of the Kyles get it done today. Larson is the most expensive driver this week for good reason. He has 2 wins this year and he is the best driver at Dover. His career average in 14 races is 6.9. He has one win and 13 Lead Lap Finishes. Staying on the lead lap will be the key in a winning lineup and he can do it. He’s also been the luckiest driver this season. He runs well in most races, but those 2 wins, he lucked into them.

I feel like I’m picking Kyle Busch every other week, but he is tough to pass up, especially considering the fact that these cars don’t pass, and Busch has prime real estate at the top of the leaderboard. It wouldn't surprise me a bit to see him lead the majority of laps today. He has a decent history here too. He has led over 10 percent of the laps he has completed here and has 3 wins. And like Larson, he has 2 wins this season also and was the most recent winner at Talladega. Look for him to be fast again.

Last Two: Tyler Reddick ($8,500) Starting 7th; Joey Logano ($8,200) Starting 26th

Reddick’s history here isn't strong, but hopefully that may deter DFS players from picking him. My strategy picking him is that passing will be tough. If he is starting 7th, I expect him to stay in the Top 10. In the Xfinity Series, he was solid, so I think he could run well today. His price isn't bad either.

Logano is another driver that I feel like I pick every other week. Normally, because I feel like his price is too good to pass up. This isn't his best track, but he does run well here normally. He doesn’t have a win, but he consistently is a Top 10 finisher here. If he can climb to the Top 10, that would be great, especially considering that he is only $8,200.

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