2023 Stanley Cup Final Preview

And we are down to two. The Florida Panthers will face off with the Vegas Golden Knights in the Stanley Cup Final this season and despite not being favored by hardly anyone to be at this point, they’re both still in it. This is the 2nd Stanley Cup Final appearance for both teams. The Panthers played the Colorado Avalanche in 1996 where they were swept. The Golden Knights were in it in 2018 and lost to the Washington Capitals, 4-1. Both teams are obviously looking for their first Stanley Cup trophy in their team’s history, so it should be extra tense.

The Panthers were at 35/1 odds when the Stanley Cup Playoffs began, and the Knights were 14/1. In the preseason however, the Panthers were one of the most favored teams to win the Cup. They won the Presidents’ Trophy in 2022, so they were expected to be very good again. This regular season didn’t go quite as anticipated, but I don’t think they could’ve asked for a better playoff run. As for the Knights, they were the best team in the West as far as standings go, but they weren’t favored. Never were. They were always the overlooked team for some reason. Not anymore though. They are favored to beat the Florida Panthers in this Stanley Cup Final. It should be a good matchup and both teams are similar in their play styles, so it should be a good matchup.

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Florida Panthers (R1: def BOS, 4-3; R2: def TOR, 4-1; ECF: def CAR, 4-0) vs. Vegas Golden Knights (R1: def WPG, 4-1; R2: def EDM, 4-2; WCF: def DAL, 4-2)

The road to the Stanley Cup Final is never easy, but my goodness, the Florida Panthers had an extremely tough road to get here. Taking down the best team in NHL history in the first round. Then defeating the Leafs, who were considered by many as their favorite after their opening round advancement. And more recently, embarrassing the Carolina Hurricanes in an Eastern Conference Finals sweep. They have met as many obstacles in a playoff run as you imagine and have beaten down the door with each and every opportunity. It’s really unbelievable. After Game 4, heck, even during Game 5 of the opening round against the Bruins during OT, it looked like the Panthers were on their way out of the playoffs. Since then, they have only lost 1 game. I knew if they were to get past the Bruins somehow, that they would be a dangerous team. Despite me predicting a 4-1 Carolina victory in the ECF, that was more wishful thinking than sound analysis. I knew the Panthers were going to be tough and I was just being bold. Carolina was never in that series. After the 4OT loss in the first game, they were mentally drained. You could tell that they just couldn’t hang with the Panthers and that was something that they didn’t meet in the playoffs up until that point. The Panthers were the better team, no question. I think that they would’ve won a best of 15 series in a sweep.

Matthew Tkachuk is getting most of the recognition as the top player of the playoffs and deservingly so. He has been at the forefront of each series and teams seemingly have no answer for him. Too bad he didn’t want to stay in Calgary, but that is the past. He has a the most points among the two active teams remaining, notching 21 points so far in the playoffs. Carter Verhaeghe has been strong as well with 15. You also couldn’t ask any more from their goalie, Sergei Bobrovsky. He looked like a tank in the Hurricanes series only allowing 6 goals in the 4-game sweep. He has a 93.5% save percentage throughout the playoffs. They say that good goalie play leads teams to the Cup and Bobrovsky has done enough for them to close it out. The Panthers tend to get under your skin on the ice and it has obviously worked in their favor, it will be interesting to see how they fare against the Knights.

The Knights road to get to the Stanley Cup Final wasn’t easy in the slightest, but I will definitely say that it was much easier than the Panthers road to get here. None of the series matchups for them were really ever in doubt, but the Oilers were their toughest test to get here. I even predicted a Stars series win, but the Knights moved on pretty easily. Like I said earlier, they were the best team in the West, but somehow always overlooked. I don’t understand it, but they are no longer overlooked now. They are slightly favored to be the 2023 Stanley Cup Champions. I think that is probably because they will have more home ice opportunities if Game 7 is forced. Game 7 doesn’t occur as much as you would think though. The last Game 7 Stanley Cup Final was pre-Covid in 2019. Before that, the Boston Bruins victory in 2011 went to Game 7. It has only happened twice in last 13 seasons. Not saying that it couldn’t happen again, but odds aren't in that favor.

The Knights have been led by Jack Eichel on the attack, but he isn't doing it all alone. Jonathan Marchessault, Mark Stone, William Karlsson, and Chandler Stephenson are all doing their fair share on the ice. All of which have above 14 points in the playoffs. The Stars are no slouch of a team and they handled them rather easily. Adin Hill’s momentous goalie play has been fantastic. Since getting the hot hand start in Game 3 of the Edmonton series, he hasn’t left the net and has been very good. The team has been 7-2-1 since his mainstay in the starting lineup. He has 2.07 GPG against in the playoffs with 93.7% saves. Both teams have had great goalie play, so it will be interesting to see who will come out on top.

This is going to be a tough prediction, but like the rest of my predictions, I am going to go off of the cuff. The Panthers and Knights split their season series at a game each, but Vegas had the goal scoring advantage 5-4. Both teams were great at home in the regular season. Both teams had 51 points, so if I have to give the edge at home to one team it will be Florida because they were the worse team overall. As for games on the road, the Knights were obviously better. The Panthers were below .500 on the road in the regular season. During the playoffs, the Knights have been the better team. They score 3.65 goals per game as opposed to Florida’s 3.13. They were the most efficient shooting team in the playoffs, they were even the more aggressive team as the penalty minutes suggest. Their defenses have been pretty evenly matched if you look at it, but Vegas allowed less goals per game in the playoffs. The Panthers took one less game to get here though, despite having a 7-game opening round. The Panthers lead in two big categories though. Power play percentage and save percentage. Those could come in handy during this Final.

With all of that being said, the decision is tough. Common sense tells me to go with the Panthers, but stats and analysis tells me that Vegas is the better team. I am ruling with common sense in this one. I have seen more of the Panthers and I think they are the team to beat. They always find a way. The Panthers have only lost 1 road ice game in the playoffs. Let me remind you they have defeated the Bruins, Leafs, and Hurricanes to get to this point. Losing only 1 game on the road against those powerhouses is remarkable. The Knights haven’t had a real test in the playoffs, but the Panthers have been in a constant state of tests. Let me rephrase that the Knights haven’t had their backs against the wall yet. They likely will in this series. Even with the home-ice advantage, give me the Panthers in 6.

Series Prediction: Panthers in 6

Yacs