NASCAR Ally 400 DFS Preview

Photo Credit: NASCAR.com

DraftKings Preview

AustYn

After the first weekend off for the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series season, we head to Lebanon, Tennessee which is the site of the Nashville Superspeedway. Martin Truex Jr has been putting on a clinic this season and his win at Sonoma was no different. The Toyota’s have been on a roll here lately and it will be difficult to fade them here in Nashville. Truex is the point standings leader heading into this race, with William Byron trailing by 13 points in 2nd. There is a tie for 3rd with Ryan Blaney and Ross Chastain being behind by 24 points. Noah Gragson will be back behind the wheel of the 42 car after he sat out Sonoma due to concussion symptoms. The biggest news in NASCAR is undoubtedly the announcement of Kevin Harvick’s replacement in 2024. Stewart-Haas held a press conference and let the world know that Josh Berry will be a Cup driver next season in their stable. Berry has turned heads with his performances in the 48 and 9 car’s this year for Hendrick Motorsports. One thing to note about Josh is his story, I remember seeing him on iRacing all of the time, and an opportunity from Dale Earnhardt Jr has now turned into a full-time racing career at the biggest stage stock car racing has to offer. There will definitely be growing pains and the replacing of Kevin Harvick is a steep task, but I think he will do just fine.

Nashville is a 1.3-mile oval that has a concrete surface. It is also a slick track and grip is a premium advantage here. It is pretty different than any other track the Cup Series goes to, and it is difficult to explain what track it is similar too, but teams will be using the same tire model that was used at Fontana, Kansas and Las Vegas. With 300 laps scheduled to be completed, I look for track position to be key. Passing is difficult, but not impossible here. The truck and Xfinity race had lots and lots of spins and wrecks, so I am curious to see how the Cup Series handles the track. With the race starting later in the day, I think grip will be added throughout the race. In devising a DFS strategy, I want to look at practice speeds and performance last season. The car will be the same, but the tires are different, so I am not putting as much stock in the results last year. My goal this week is to not necessarily pick a driver who gains the most spots on the track, but I want consistency and a higher likelihood of getting a top-15 finish with all 6 drivers, so I am staying away from any driver priced $10k or higher.

Top Pick: Ross Chastain Starting 1st ($9,600)

Photo Credit: sportsbookswire.usatoday.com

I believe this is where Trackhouse gets their first victory of the season. Ross has never gotten a pole before, until today which is pretty weird to think about, so I think the track position for him will be crucial. There are 300 laps to be completed today, and if Ross leads 100+ and finishes top-5…he is the best selection today.

Supporting Cast: Chris Buescher Starting 12th ($7,500) & A.J. Allmendinger Starting 19th ($6,500)

Buescher has performed well this season for RFK and it appears that organization is starting to shine. He is 11th in the points standings this year and is priced very well. His practice speeds were solid too as he was 7th on 10 laps runs. A solid top-15 is all we need here. Allmendinger is a driver that I do not select a lot, but his Xfinity win yesterday has me thinking he will drive solidly today. He is 20th in the points standings this season and hovered around 20th in lap averages, so that’s really all we need and he makes it worth a look at a sub $7k price.

FanDuel Preview: Yacs

NASCAR had an off week last week, but the action is back at Nashville tonight. This will be the third Cup Series race at this track and it has been a pretty decent race every time. The track is a 1.33-mile oval and is called a Superspeedway, but it isn't in terms of NASCAR terminology. There really isn't a track to compare it to. It is pretty unique. At least there was a practice session for this race. It feels like we haven’t gotten hardly any practice sessions in for oval races.

Today’s strategy will be pretty straight-forward. I want drivers that have produce winning value all season long and I want drivers that have a decent history here at Nashville. There are a lot of different varieties of lineups that you can do today and that makes things a little more tough when you’re filling out your lineup. Let’s not waste any more time though. Here is what we got on FanDuel this week.

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First Picks: Kyle Larson ($14,000) Starting 7th; Chase Elliott ($11,000) Starting 14th

I don’t think you can't go without Kyle Larson this week. He is a safety blanket at this track. He has dominated in the 2 races here with an average finish of 2.5. If you don’t go with Larson, I would say pick Chastain, because they are both dominant at this track.

As for Elliott. He won the race last year here, but in the first race, he had a last place finish, due to loose lug nuts in post-race inspection. If you dismiss that fact, he would have an average finish of 7th here. I think it will be good enough if he gets around a 7th place finish today, but I expect that 9 car to be extra aggressive from here on out. He needs points.

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Climbers: Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($6,800) Starting 28th; Michael McDowell ($4,500) Starting 33rd

These two drivers have been among some of the most consistent in the field every week. He has finished inside of the Top 20 all but 3 times in the 16 Cup Series races this season. Stenhouse has finished 6th and 16thin his two races at Nashville he is in prime position to gain a lot of passing points tonight.

The same goes for McDowell. He has back-to-back Top 10 finishes and is looking to make it 3 in a row. McDowell’s finishes here are 16th and 13th, so not awesome, but for $4,500, it is a massive steal. I don’t expect him or Stenhouse to compete for the win, but if they can flirt with the Top 10, I would be content. I think they can do that today, because they have proven that they can do it.

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Final Pick: William Byron ($13,000) Starting 5th

Among the drivers that I am picking, Byron had the fastest practice speeds. He finished 3rd here in 2021 and last year could’ve been a similar result, but he never recovered from contact made with Chase Elliott early in the race, so he had a 35th place finish. As long as he can stay out of trouble, he should be a Top 4 driver all race long, if not a winning contender.