NASCAR Crayon 301 DFS Preview

Photo Credit: Jayski.com

DraftKings Preview

AustYn

The NASCAR Cup Series is back in the New England area with the Crayon 301 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. Last week, William Byron won a rain-shortened Atlanta race, which was his 4th of the season, and it helped him take a 21 point lead in the point standings. It was a relatively quiet week in the world of NASCAR, but one of the larger stories that surfaced was Ross Chastain’s sponsorship for next season. As you all know, Kevin Harvick will be retiring at the end of this season and the Busch partnership will retire along with it. In looking for a new driver, they landed on Trackhouse Racing’s own Ross Chastain. This will undoubtedly give the team more funding and resources to stay competitive at a high level. The NASCAR Hall of Fame released the nominees this week too and there happens to be a lock in that field…Jimmie Johnson and Chad Knaus…which sounds perfect considering their major successes they achieved together.

New Hampshire Motor Speedway or Loudon as a lot of fans call it…is a 1-mile oval that is flat. Passing is difficult here due to the flatness and track position will be major today. Christopher Bell will be on the pole today and he happens to be last year’s winner as well. Drivers will be searching for speed all day as this track doesn’t necessarily have many grooves, but since it is a flat track, you can set up corners differently with drive-in, roll speed through the center and drive-off ability. I wouldn’t say this track is like any other that the series goes too, which makes history crucial for drafting a lineup. Most of the time, one driver dominates the day here and my strategy is to pick that one driver, as well as select a few who think will finish above where they are starting. Practice speeds will show who can maintain their equipment on the long run, but one thing I noticed while analyzing was that not many drivers elected to run long-runs.

Top Pick: Martin Truex Jr.: Starting 2nd ($11,000)

Photo Credit: MSN.com

Martin Truex Jr. has been so good this year. He has exceeded my pre-season expectations for sure. Even though he only has 2 wins, he has seemingly been a contender at just about every track this year. He hasn’t finished outside the top-16 since 2012 and even though he has never won at New Hampshire, I still think his practice speeds show he is the car to beat today.

Supporting Cast: Bubba Wallace Starting 8th ($8,000) & Michael McDowell Starting 17th (5,900)

Bubba finished 3rd here last season and was 5th in overall speed and 10 lap average in practice. History is not necessarily going to persuade you to go with him today, but last year’s performance is a great indicator of what he can do. Michael McDowell is going to be really chalky today, but at a sub $6k price, you can’t beat his value. As the fastest car in practice and he maintained it on lap averages, the #34 Ford only has to get us a top-15 to return anything and the fact is…he could be the pick of the week.

FanDuel Preview

Yacs

Well, it looks like we’re not going to see this race until tomorrow, but that doesn’t mean that we can't strategize today. New Hampshire is one of the less-exciting tracks on the circuit, but there have been some good races in the last few times. It is a flat, 1-mile track and certain drivers thrive here, while others aren't so good. This is definitely a niche track for some, so keep an eye out for that.

Today’s strategy for FanDuel will be somewhat of a mixed bag. I think you need a combination of a few things with the way the salaries are priced. Obviously, previous results at Loudon should matter. If you do well at this track, you probably have a knack for its style of driving that is required. Passing is going to be a little tough here, but not quite like other tracks. You can pick drivers starting in the back half of the field. I think you want a good mixture of pass potential drivers and guys that will have the stronger equipment. Well, after all of that, let’s see what we have this week on FanDuel.

First Off the Board: Christopher Bell ($13,000) Starting 1st; Kyle Larson ($12,000) Starting 15th

I talked about drivers who have a knack for certain tracks. Christopher Bell has a knack for this style of racing. In the Top 3 series’ of NASCAR, Bell has 5 wins already. He won the last race here in 2022 and even won the consecutive in the Xfinity Series in 2018-21. To say he knows how to race at this track is an understatement. Look for him to be strong today. He will be chosen quite a bit, but I wouldn't worry too much about it. He will be strong.

Kyle Larson is a plug-in at any track virtually. He doesn’t have a win at Loudon yet, but he does have 3 2ndplace finishes and a 3rd place finish in his Cup Series history. If he has the car to do it, a win will happen. If not a win, definitely a Top 5, so don’t be surprised to see the 5 car racing for the win in the closing stages tomorrow.

AP

Value Picks: Brad Keselowski ($8,000) Starting 9th; Ross Chastain ($10,000) Starting 31st

Of all of the active tracks in the Cup Series, Loudon is Keselowski’s best. In fact, he is the 2nd best active driver at this track, behind Denny Hamlin. His average finish in 22 starts is 10.0. If he can get another Top 10 here at his salary, that is perfectly fine, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him racing for the win. These RFK cars have been sneaky good all season long, so don’t say I didn’t warn you.

Chastain doesn’t feel like a true value pick at his price, but he can provide a ton of value because of his starting spot. He has finished 8th in both of his last 2 starts at Loudon. Granted, he didn’t start has far back as he will in this one, but I wouldn't be too concerned. He did put down the 3rd fastest lap in practice. I think a lot of players will pick Michael McDowell based on practice speeds and for his price, you can't beat it, but I think you should spend a little more and get a driver with a little equipment advantage.

Wild Card Pick: Ryan Preece ($6,200) Starting 21st

I just mentioned how I think a lot of people will go down and get Michael McDowell this week. While that may be true, I think Ryan Preece could be a solid alternative. I don’t really have a reason to believe that Preece will tear it up tomorrow, but I think he could get a solid finish. My hunch is that his asphalt modified success will translate at this track. They race at a lot of flat, short tracks and he has had a lot of success in that series. In fact, he has won at Loudon in a modified. If he can finish within the teens, I think that would be good enough for the price that you’re paying for him.