NASCAR Cook Out Southern 500 DFS Preview
Labor Day weekend will bring us the Cook Out Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway for one of the most iconic races of the season. The Southern 500 is considered a “Crown Jewel” race as it is one of the most historic victories you can attain as a NASCAR driver. The grueling 500 miles on the paper-clip, banked oval takes its toll on the driver and the equipment. Tire conservation will be massive in this event, those that can maintain tire wear will have faster cars on long runs, which we will have plenty of today. Darlington is unlike any other track, so DFS strategies will consist of a mixture of analyzing the past results of drivers and a little practice speed deciphering…what I mean by that is long-run speed consistency. I am looking for fast laps, but the consistency of fast laps are more important. Track position has always been key here as passing at Darlington is difficult too. I will be taking more of a tournament approach, picking drivers who I believe will not be as heavily owned in my supporting cast.
Top Pick: Kyle Larson Starting 18th ($10,500)
This is a chalky pick, but Larson is too fast here to ignore. When you think of Darlington, you think of drivers who can keep it against the wall at high speeds, the driver that comes to mind is Kyle Larson. I don’t care where he is starting, he will be up front earlier than you think and he will win tonight’s race.
Supporting Cast: Michael McDowell Starting 9th ($7,400) & Austin Cindric Starting 14th ($6,100)
I cannot believe DK is gifting everyone a playoff driver for under $8k. Michael McDowell is starting in a great position and last season, he finished 6th and 7th in the 2 events at Darlington. He was fast in practice and did not participate in long run sessions, but a top-10 for McDowell is fairly likely. Austin Cindric was amazingly fast in practice. Posting the fastest averages in 5, 10 and 15 lap averages, the Team Penske Ford looks to be a contender tonight. Cindric will have a new crew chief tonight, and this is exactly where he can turn his season around. The track position is great and a top-20 is really all we need.
FanDuel Preview
Yacs
The first playoff race is tonight, and it should be a good one. Darlington is usually a pretty good race and I don’t think this going to be any exception. The field seems to be all over the place on FanDuel, so it will be interesting to see the different strategies that you could do today. It usually is pretty tough to choose drivers here, but on FanDuel, I had a fairly easy experience with it.
My strategy this week is not as much previous experience at Darlington, but I really wanted to see lap times in practice. Darlington usually involves a lot of long-run periods and I think you need cars that are capable of handling long runs. I really love my lineup for tonight’s race, so let’s dive in.
Title Favorites: Martin Truex Jr. ($14,000) Starting 31st; William Byron ($13,500) Starting 23rd
These two drivers are considered the betting favorites to win the Cup Series Championship and I am going to roll them out in race number 1 of the playoffs. Both drivers have a good history here and I think they both will be fast, and I think both of them will climb to the top by the time the race ends. Truex is a 2-time winner at the track and he has had a string of bad luck at this track. Hopefully that will deter some DFS players, but it will not deter me. Expect him to be in the Top 10 for half of the race.
Byron was the last winner here, earlier in the year. Byron’s career average has been somewhat tainted by only three bad finishes, but other than that, he is an excellent driver here. Not only will these two drivers get a good finish, they will climb a lot of spots to get there. That means climbing those tournament leaderboards. Both of these guys should be pretty strong today and the next 9 races to follow.
Value Picks: Chris Buescher ($9,000) Starting 8th; Ryan Blaney ($7,800) Starting 4th
Chris Buescher is the hottest driver in NASCAR. If I told you that Buescher would have 3 wins prior to the playoffs at the beginning of the season, you would’ve thought I was insane. Buescher and RFK have been killing it this year and he has had decent runs at Darlington. He has had 3 Top 10s in the Roush 17 car and considering how well he is performing, look for a repeat result. Don’t be surprised if he hovers around the Top 5 all night.
As for Blaney, Blaney had a fast long-run car. Between 10-20 lap averages, he was consistently 2nd or 3rd. He should be fast all night if he can stay out of trouble. He has only had 2 Top 10s here, but I am not too scared of that. I think he will run well today. Hopefully he won’t be chosen as much due to his starting spot.
Wild Card: Austin Cindric ($4,500) Starting 14th
Cindric has had a down year and I understand why he is priced so low, but man was he fast in practice. He had the fastest, 5,10 and 15-lap averages. He also was 3rd in 20 and 25 lap averages. He has a rocket for tonight’s race. Sure, he doesn’t have an awesome history here and 14th starting spot isn't great for him, but I think he is worth the risk considering how fast he was in long runs. I think he could easily get a Top 10 tonight if he stays off of the wall. At $4,500, I think he could be the steal of this field.