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AustYn

The NASCAR Cup Series goes down to Miam for the Homestead-Miami Speedway’s 4EVER 400. This is my favorite track on the circuit. I really wish that the title race came down to this place and not Phoenix…probably because Kyle Larson would break the all-time championship record before he retires…but I digress. Homestead is a 1.5-mile oval that has an aged surface that makes tire conservation the most important thing to look at. Seasoned veterans are always great choices here, and history at this track is my most important stat. Practice speeds are kind of important, but only if drivers had long runs to analyze. Tire falloff will be so huge that speed will not matter and drivers that can conserve will find their way to the front. Martin Truex Jr. is on the pole for today’s event, followed by Bubba Wallace in 2nd. Goodyear is bringing the same tire that was used at Darlington and multiple other 1.3-mile and larger ovals. Teams will have 10 sets of tires, which should be enough, but strategy is important as teams that have a few sets let will have an advantage late in the race.

Top Pick: Kyle Larson Starting 5th ($11,500)

I may have given away my first selection in my statement about Kyle, but I truly believe this will be a #5 win today. Larson put on a clinic here last season, starting in 5th then and leading 199 laps, with well over 100 fastest laps. The fastest lap stat will be major here and look for Larson to dominate that category as well today.

Supporting Cast/Dillon Bros.: Austin Dillon Starting 6th ($6,400) & Ty Dillon Starting 33rd ($5,000)

Austin Dillon is sneakily one of the best drivers at Homestead-Miami. His average finish is 8.4 in his last 5 and overall, it is 11.6. Down in the cellar of sub $7k selections, Dillon has the opportunity to finish in the top-10 and get us solid points for the day…plus I truly believe nobody will risk picking him. To keep it in the family, I went with Ty Dillon. His stats are mediocre here, let’s be honest, but strong enough to warrant consideration. With an average finish of 25.0 in his last 5, I like Dillon to pass a few cars and get us around 25th for a solid points outing.

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Yacs

Miami is the next destination for the NASCAR Cup Series and each race continues to get more and more critical. Kyle Larson locked himself into the Championship 4 last week with his win at Vegas. Homestead is a unique track for drivers and it is one of those tracks that drivers either dominate or ride around at historically. My strategy today will be to pick drivers with a good history here and have a mix of good practice speeds. I don’t have much else to say here, so let’s dive in to my FanDuel picks for Homestead.

First Off of the Board: Tyler Reddick ($13,000) Starting 3rd; Christopher Bell ($11,000) Starting 13th

Reddick is The Man at this track. No doubt about it. He ran into trouble last year, but that is practically the only blemish that he has at this track in his NASCAR career. He dominates this track and I think he will probably be up front for a good portion of the race. It is encouraging that his 23XII teammate, Bubba Wallace was super-fast in practice. Well, he was in the short runs. We’ll see how fast that team truly is today, but Tyler Reddick has a knack for getting around this track, so I wouldn't worry about him.

Christopher Bell is next off of the board and like Reddick, Bell is fighting to move on to the next round. Bell put on a clutch performance last season by moving on to each round by picking up wins He is still alive, and I think he has a good shot to move into the Top 4 by the end of this race. All of Bell’s Cup starts here have resulted in him getting inside the Top 20, but he only has 1 Top 10 in those 3 starts. He is gonna have to do better than that today, but I think he can. I wouldn't say that he had a really fast car, but I do think he will be competitive.

Value Picks: Joey Logano ($7,800) Starting 36th; Kevin Harvick ($7,400) Starting 22nd

Why are these guys below $8,000 this week??? Do not ask questions like that, simply snag them in your lineup this week. The reigning Cup Series Champ and the most dominant driver at Homestead in history are below $8,000 this week and I think you shouldn’t think twice about it. Logano has been solid in the past here, but his more recent history can be a bit concerning. I simply think his starting position is too difficult to pass on though. He should climb up to the Top 15 today.

As for Harvick, he is the best driver ever at this track. He only has 1 win, but he has more Top 5’s than not Top 5’s at this track in 22 races. That is an almost unbelievable stat. He hasn’t had a DNF 1 time in this Cup Series career here and is practically a lock for Top 10. 19 of 22 of his races have resulted in a Top 10. 12 of his 22 within the Top 5. Now, I don’t know if he will win the race or anything like that, but count on him to be within the Top 10 by the end of this thing. Also, it is worth noting that they are honoring him today with the 4EVER tagline.

Final Pick: Ryan Blaney ($8,500) Starting 10th

Blaney has certainly been a topic of discussion in the week following Vegas. He was penalized, then he wasn’t and now it is as if nothing has happened. It was weird, because I don’t know exactly how you can penalize a team that harshly, and just take it away in the next day. Anyway, that isn't for me to worry about. Blaney had the fastest long run car in practice by a good margin. Kyle Larson barely squeaked by him in 15-lap average, but beyond that Blaney topped the leaderboard. Now that Blaney doesn’t desperately need a win he may not be as aggressive, but don’t let that stop you from picking him this week. He should be fast today.

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