NASCAR Daytona 500 DFS Preview
DraftKings Preview
AustYn
We are back at Daytona Beach, Florida for the Daytona 500 and in the 75th year of the NASCAR Cup Series I am sure that The Great American Race will not disappoint. Also, The Sports Chief is back with your weekly DFS preview for DraftKings and FanDuel! As you all know, Joey Logano is the reigning NASCAR Cup champion and will look to repeat his success in the upcoming season. You will also notice a few new faces in the Cup Series this season, with Ty Gibbs in the #54 car for Joe Gibbs Racing, Noah Gragson will be in the #42 for the newly formed Legacy Motor Club and Ryan Preece has taken over the #41 for Stewart-Haas Racing. This race will not necessarily show us who will be a force to be reckoned with but performing well in the event will etch their name in history. Austin Cindric is the retuning Daytona 500 winner and don’t count any of the Ford’s out this week, because they have been fast. In other big news in the “Silly Season” Kyle Busch will be in the RCR #8 car, Tyler Reddick will be in the #45 23XII machine and Kaulig Racing adds AJ Allmendinger to their Cup stable. All these names have the potential of making the NASCAR Playoffs and with a record setting 19 winners last year, I look for that trend to continue.
Now onto the race itself. The teams will have 8 sets of tires which should not be an issue, fuel mileage may come into play, so it will not be rare to see drivers hanging out at the back of the longest line in the pack to conserve. This is where you will see the fastest laps as well, which are worth a nice 0.45 points per lap…more than laps led at 0.25. These statistics are crucial when selecting drivers for this race. You also want a couple who are great at wreck avoidance…but in all reality, these superspeedway races are the most difficult to analyze. There will be 200 laps ran on Sunday and according to various weather forecasts…rain should stay away which is great for this time of the year in Florida! Another thing is that driver price points should not be a major factor in selecting your 6 this weekend. I will be looking at history, practice times and most importantly…starting position.
Top Pick: Kyle Busch Starting 36th ($9,600)
I don’t feel like there is a major explanation needed for this selection. Kyle is running his first race with RCR and has an immense amount of confidence heading into the 2023 season. Tyler Reddick elevated this team to new heights last year and I think Busch will continue the progress that was made. Starting in 36th, Busch will have positive e/v in gaining 1 point per spot gained and even though they are headed to a back-up car…Busch looked strong in the duels. I actually think Kyle wins this race…he has never won the Daytona 500 and this feels like the perfect time.
Supporting Cast: Justin Haley Starting 28th ($5,600) & Ty Dillon Starting 37th ($4,800)
Chevrolet is the manufacturer I will be rolling with today. Justin Haley is starting in the 28th spot and has already made a name for himself at this style of racing. His average finish in the Cup Series is 14.2 and he has won here before. He has also won twice in the Xfinity Series. Look out for the Kaulig Racing team to hang out for a while and possibly avoid the mayhem that will eventually ensue. Ty Dillon is my next member of the supporting cast. Joining Spire Motorsports this season, he is a seasoned veteran who is not too shabby at Daytona with an average finish of 19.6. Starting in 37th position makes him a valuable option at the sub-$5k price and I look for Ty to bring it home in the top-25.
FanDuel Preview
Yacs
The Cup Series opener is finally here, and the NASCAR season will officially get under way today at Daytona. If you follow NASCAR regularly, then you know what to expect from Daytona. High speed, pack-racing. This year will be no different. These cars simply don’t allow to break away from the pack no matter how hard you try. There is a skill that goes into staying out of trouble and being aggressive at the same time, but at the end of the day, luck is on your side if you end up in victory lane at Daytona
My strategy for today is simple. Don’t think too hard about it. It’s Daytona. You basically are playing the lottery with 5 cars on FanDuel. You don’t know if these cars will stay out of trouble and you can't predict the results, no matter how much research that you put into it. My strategy is to get the drivers that have a knack for avoiding cautions and pair them up with teammates who have the same tendencies. You likely will not spend your entire salary cap at Daytona, nor should you. This is the biggest chance race of the season and you might as well just draw names out of a hat. This won’t be too detailed, but here we go. Let’s dive into my FanDuel lineup.
Will Front Row Finish Front Row?: Zane Smith ($5,200) Starting 17th; Michael McDowell ($7,000) Starting 11th
It was announced that Zane Smith will be taking a share of the starts for Todd Gilliland this year, but for the Daytona 500, he will have his own ride in the 36 car. Zane is one of those drivers that seems to have a knack of where to be at the right time. He won the Truck Series race on Friday night and he has had success in the trucks at Daytona in the past. His inexperience in the Cup car is a little concerning but I’m not that worried really. This will be his 2nd career Cup start and his first Daytona 500.
With that being said, it helps to have teammates that have been there before and won the big race. Michael McDowell isn't only good at these tracks, he has won the big race legitimately. Statistically, McDowell is coming off of his best season in the Cup Series and he will look to ride that momentum into the new year. He has had lead lap finishes in the last 10 Daytona 500 starts and that is music to my ears. That is what you want to hear when it comes to Daytona. If they’re finishing the race, they are doing well in DFS. If you’re looking to take a chance, McDowell has 35/1 odds and Smith has 100/1.
Kaulig Racing: Justin Haley ($6,500) Starting 28th; AJ Allmendinger ($5,800) Starting 29th
No, I’m not previewing each team for this race, but it may seem that way starting out. I think Haley will be picked quite a bit honestly, but I really don’t care. I don’t think drivers are going to pick Zane Smith or Haley’s teammate Allmendinger, so this lineup should be in good shape. Haley has that knack for superspeedway racing. He knows how to avoid trouble and Kaulig has the power to be at the front in the end. He didn’t have a great stretch at Daytona in the Cup car last season, but I’m not worried about him. He’ll be eager to be at the front in the end.
As for Allmendinger, I’m hoping people will overlook him today. I wanted a teammate to pair with Haley and Allmendinger is a great choice. Dinger has had a great track record here most recently in the Xfinity car, but if you look at his last 5 Cup starts at the track, he averages roughly a 7th place finish. That’s pretty good if you ask me. Dinger is a smart driver and Haley is as well. You want smart drivers at these tracks and these two are really good value drivers for the price and the possibilities of a wreck-fest. It also helps that they’re starting beside each other today. Both drivers have 50/1 odds today.
4-Time Daytona 500 Winner?: Denny Hamlin ($12,500) Starting 18th
Number 11 has 11/1 odds in today’s race, which is 2nd favorite. Hamlin’s team underperformed last year despite being one of the best driver’s all season long. He somehow found himself in trouble all the time and he will look to change that luck this season. If you have to bet on a guy to win the 500, it would be Denny. He has done it 3 times. If he wins today, he will join the elite circle of Richard Petty and Cale Yarborough with at least 4 Daytona 500 victories. He certainly has the capability to do so. I think he will be picked possibly the highest in the field, but I wouldn't worry too much about that.