NASCAR Advent Health 400 DFS Preview

Photo Credit: Speedway Digest

DraftKings Preview

AustYn

Kansas Speedway’s Advent Health 400 is the next stop on the NASCAR Cup Series tour, and we are finally back at a 1.5-mile oval. Last week, it was Martin Truex Jr. who came away with the victory at Dover Motor Speedway, a track where he received his first Cup win. William Byron looked very strong in that one too, leading over 150+ laps and the #24 driver is on the pole today. One major news event that happened this week was the announcement that Legacy Motor Club will be switching to Toyota next season…Erik Jones and Noah Gragson are familiar with the TRD camp, and this will help solidify Toyota’s position in NASCAR as a contender. I really like the move for the team, Chevrolet had not been helping Legacy Motor Club out the way Jimmie Johnson wanted and he decided to pursue other options to become a contender. What I do not understand is the media publicity surrounding the fact that Jimmie is a traitor and how Richard Petty could have his name tied to Toyota. Petty has swapped so many manufacturers…that I think this completes it for him…I know he has driven Ford, Chevy, Dodge, Plymouth, Pontiac…probably some others in there but who cares really? Do people realize that more Toyota’s are probably manufactured in the US than Chevy’s? I just wish Honda would get on board and bring something to NASCAR…oh and Jimmie drove one of those in Indycar. Long gone are the days of manufacturer loyalty…I think it is about time that teams start forcing manufacturers to provide them with better equipment.

On to the race itself…William Byron will lead the field to green as I said earlier, and he will be beside Kyle Larson on the front-row. Hendrick Motorpsorts up front means you should go with them automatically, correct? Wrong! I think that there is plenty of value in the field and Toyota looked fast in practice. Last season, 23XI Racing sweep Kansas with Kurt Busch winning in May and Bubba Wallace winning in the September race. They were both driving the 45 car too. There will be 267 laps completed today, barring any rain which looks doubtful that will happen, but it is the Spring. Teams will have 9 sets of tires and that will be key today. I will be looking at drivers who had little fall-off in practice as well as last season’s results. History is important here as the track seems unique compared to other 1.5-mile ovals. Many of the drivers who ran well last year here…had performed solidly throughout their careers.

Top Pick: Tyler Reddick ($10,400) Starting 5th

(Photo by Sean Gardner/Getty Images)

This is not a surprise at all and I apologize for that…but I do think this is the correct pick today. Tyler Reddick was fast in the 8 car last year here too, they just had bad luck. 23XI has the best setup for this place and I really like the fact that Reddick is starting the highest among the fastest 5 & 10 lap run drivers. My only concern is Martin Truex Jr in the 4th spot and the fact that his team has so much confidence right now, but I still like Reddick to win today. Oh and Kurt Busch started in 5th last year and won…so it’s meant to be right?

Supporting Cast: Michael McDowell ($5,900) Starting 23rd & Noah Gragson ($5,000) Starting 22nd

Michael McDowell is the definition of consistency at Kansas. In his last 6 starts…McDowell hasn’t finished below 23rd. He also showed top-15 speed in 5 and 10 lap runs. At a price tag under $6k…I really like McDowell to get us a top-20. Noah Gragson is a total dart throw. The 42 car placed 20th in both Kansas races with Ty Dillon last season and Noah Gragson placed 18th in both Kansas races last year. Consistency is important to me in DFS and while Noah Gragson has had an abysmal year from a performance standpoint, I think this is exactly the place to turn things around.

FanDuel Preview

Yacs

After another miserable week on FanDuel, the luck has to change at some point, right? Well, hopefully this week is the week where the tides turn. A lot of people dump on Kansas, but I like it. It’s like a smaller Michigan with a Vegas feel. Last week, we saw Martin Truex Jr. pick up a win and snap his winless streak of over 50 races. A lot of our drivers got into trouble and weren’t able to finish.

With that being said, if we can get our drivers to finish and finish on the lead lap, that is the ideal scenario. With these cars, DFS seems more like the lottery than a strategic game. My strategy is to look at the results of the last 2 Kansas races and look at the past results of Vegas from this year. I don’t know if it will work, but it’s worth a try.

AP

The Toyotas: Denny Hamlin ($12,000) Starting 8th; Christopher Bell ($10,500) Starting 12th; Martin Truex Jr. ($11,500) Starting 4th

I really like the Toyota cars today. 23XI has won the only two next-gen races at Kansas and I think them and JGR will be fast today. Denny Hamlin was fastest in practice and has 3 previous wins at Kansas. He also has an average finish of 3 in the last 2 races here. He hasn’t led any laps, but being in the Top 10 gives him a better shot to do so today.

Bell is one of the most consistent drivers in the field. I feel like he is often overlooked, but he probably won’t be today. He produces great results at similar tracks and he got a Top 5 at Vegas in March. I think DFS players are either going to go heavy on JGR/23XI Toyotas or Hendrick Chevrolets, but I think picking Bell will work in our favor because I think people will lean towards Bubba Wallace and potentially Tyler Reddick, who are both good at this track. We’ll see though.

Truex won last week and he has been consistently good this season, but finally got the result he was looking for. He has a 5.5 avg. in the last two races at Kansas, he has led laps and has won here previously. He also has a string of Top 10 finishes. 11 of the last 12 have been inside 10th place for him at Kansas. Look for him to be strong again today.

Value Drivers: Brad Keselowski ($7,800) Starting 20th; Josh Berry ($7,500) Starting 29th

Keselowski has been really solid this year and every week it seems like RFK is improving. Keselowski’s presence has been a huge positive for a team that was in shamble just a couple years ago. Keselowski is currently Top 10 in points and I think he will get a win sometime this season. It may be today, but I’m not expecting it. If he gets a Top 10, I will be thrilled. He has a good history here and has won twice at the track. 21 of his 26 races at Kansas have been lead lap finishes, so I think Keselowski will do well again today.

Josh Berry is my final pick and while he didn’t have inspiring results at Vegas, he has been doing really well since then. If you take away the Bristol dirt race, he is averaging a 10th place finish. That is impressive for a fill-in driver. I don’t think a lot of DFS players will pick him either because of his poor Xfinity record at Kanas, but he has been very, very good at Vegas and Michigan in the series. He has 2 wins in 5 races at Vegas and a 5th place average at Michigan. Look for him to show up at the right time. Also, there are rumors that he may be in a full-time ride next season already, so keep an eye out for that.